After 4 weeks of games there are still 4 teams sitting with a perfect record of 4-0. So, will this be the year that a team finally steps up and matches the 1972 Dolphins by turning in an undefeated season? I do think it is possible that it might happen this year. I'm not saying I believe it will happen, but I do think there is a chance.
I think the key to a team going undefeated this year will really depend on whether another team within the undefeated team's Conference can keep the competition for home field advantage close until the end of the season. For that to happen all the way through the end of the season we will have to see one of the current 1 loss teams go undefeated for the rest of the season. In the AFC we need to watch Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. In the NFC we need to watch Washington, Tampa, and Seattle.
Below I have broken down what I think each currently undefeated team's chances are of finishing the season 16-0. I have also tried to explain what the possible scenarios might be at the end of the season which might give each undefeated team some incentive to remain undefeated instead of just resting their starters for the final game or two.
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1) New England Patriots. I think New England has the best chance of any team to go undefeated this year mostly because they have an enormous chip on their shoulder after the whole spygate controversy. They want to prove to the world they are legitimate champions and they are going to give it everything they have. There are a few bumps in their schedule that will make it difficult for them, however. The Pats have to play at Dallas in week 6 and at Indy in week 9. They also have home games against Philadelphia in week 12 and Pittsburgh in week 14 that could be a challenge. The rest of New England's schedule doesn't look too tough. If the Pats are undefeated after the Pittsburgh game I think they may have it made. Their last three games would be at home against the Jets and the Dolphins, and then on the road for the season finale at the Giants. The Pats could probably rest most of their starters and still beat the Jets and the Dolphins. The Giants game could be difficult if the G-men are still fighting for a playoff spot.
If New England is still undefeated after week 14 then that means they have already beaten Pittsburgh and Indianapolis which equates into at least a two game lead for home field advantage over both of those teams. So, with three games remaining on the Pats schedule after week 14 they will not have much of an incentive to play their starters as the season winds down unless there is another AFC team out there who could possibly beat them for home field advantage. The only two teams who could possibly be in a position to challenge the Pats for home field at that point of the season would be either Jacksonville or Tennessee. And that challenge would only be good through week 16 because the Pats will have already wrapped up the tiebreakers for home field over Jacksonville and Tennessee if New England is still undefeated after week 16. So, if New England is undefeated after week 16 there will be no team left who could possibly beat New England for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. So, would the Pats play their starters in their final game if they already had home field wrapped up? Probably not.
2) Green Bay Packers. I think Green Bay has the next best chance of going undefeated this year. I don't think they are that great of a team, but I think they have a favorable schedule. They have to play at Dallas in week 13 which will be their toughest game and may decide home field advantage for the NFC throughout the playoffs. The rest of Green Bay's schedule is very winnable. If they beat Dallas in week 13 they will be looking pretty good. Their last 4 games are against Oakland in Lambeau, then at St. Louis and at Chicago, and then at home against Detroit to finish the season.
If Green Bay is still undefeated toward the end of the season they will be watching either Tampa Bay or Seattle. Green Bay won't be worried about home field advantage over Dallas or Washington because in order for Green Bay to still be undefeated after week 13 they would have already had to have beaten both the Cowboys and the Redskins. So, an undefeated Green Bay team's only competition left for home field advantage at the end of the season would have to come from either a one loss Tampa or a one loss Seattle. Again, the tiebreakers could get complicated so there is a chance that an undefeated Packer team will probably have incentive to win their final game if either Tampa or Seattle enters the final week with only one loss. If both of those teams have 2 or more losses then an undefeated Green Bay has no reason to play its starters in week 17.
3) Dallas Cowboys. If Dallas beats New England and Green Bay I think they have a legitimate shot at winning the rest of their games. In my opinion, however, I think Dallas is a long shot to go undefeated because of the Division they play in. If Dallas is still undefeated after they play Green Bay in week 13 they should be very close to wrapping up home field advantage. That means they probably won't have much to play for against Philadelphia in week 15, at Carolina in week 16, and at Washington in week 17. Those could all be tough games for Dallas if any of those teams are still fighting for a playoff spot and Dallas decides to rest some starters.
If the Dallas Cowboys approach the end of the season undefeated they will basically be looking at the same scenario that I discussed above for an undefeated Green Bay team. Dallas won't have to worry about Green Bay or Washington because they would have already beaten both teams. So, Dallas will be watching Tampa or Seattle. If either of those teams still only has one loss entering week 17 then Dallas will probably play their starters against Washington in week 17. If not, they probably won't.
4) Indianapolis Colts. I don't think the Colts have much of a chance to go undefeated for several reasons. First and foremost is that Tony Dungy has an established history of resting his starters at the end of the season. Secondly, I think the Colts play in the toughest Division in football. And thirdly, if things shake out the way I think they are going to then there is a good chance the Colts last 5 games might be against at least 4 teams fighting for playoff spots. Their last 5 games are at home against Jacksonville, on the road against Baltimore and Oakland, and then at home against Houston and Tennessee. That's a pretty tough way to end a season.
If the Colts beat New England and are still undefeated towards the end of the season then the two other AFC teams to watch will be Pittsburgh and Tennessee. This could go all kinds of different directions because the Colts could possibly be playing a one loss Titans team in week 17. If that would be the case, the only loss the Titans would have entering that game would be their week 2 loss to the Colts. So, an undefeated Colts team might have to play to win their final game against a one loss Titans team because the tiebreaker between the Colts and Titans may be complicated. Also, if the Steelers would have only one loss at the end of the season they would hold the tiebreaker advantage over both a one loss Indy and a one loss Tennessee by virtue of a better won/loss percentage inside the Conference. So, an undefeated Indy team would have the incentive to play their starters in their final game if either Pittsburgh or Tennessee enters the final week with only one loss.
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