16-0 Takes Another Hit

If you have been paying attention to the NFL season thus far you realize that the Steelers losing last night may have a dramatic impact on whether or not the Patriots or Colts finish the season 16-0 this season. If you haven't been paying attention then I guess you'll be wanting me to explain this to you. So, here goes.

The key to the Colts or Patriots going undefeated this year will really depend on whether another team within the AFC can keep the competition for home field advantage close until the end of the season.

With the Steelers losing yesterday that leaves the Jacksonville Jaguars as the only 1 loss team left in the AFC. So, if the Colts beat the Jaguars tonight then that means the Patriots and the Colts will both have a 2 game lead for home field advantage over every other team in the AFC. That's right, and the Titans and the Steelers are currently the only 2 loss teams left in the AFC. So, if the Colts beat the Jags tonight then that would mean that Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee will be tied for the 2nd best record in the AFC with each of those teams having 2 losses. Every other team in the AFC already has at least 3 losses.

We all know that the Colts and the Patriots have their big showdown with each other in week 9. If both of those teams enter week 9 still undefeated it means that the winner of that game will basically have a 2 game lead over the loser of that game by virtue of the head to head tie breaker and that the winner will also have at least a 2 game lead over everybody else in the AFC.

If everything plays out like I think it will then weeks 13 and 14 of the NFL season will be the next really important weekends to watch after week 9. The Colts will be playing the Jaguars again in week 13 and the Patriots will be playing the Steelers in week 14. Assuming that the Colts and Patriots are both still competing against each other for home field advantage I think it would be reasonable for the Patriots and the Colts to still be playing their starters in weeks 13 and 14. So, I think it would also be reasonable to assume that the Colts and Patriots will probably both have incentive to win those respective games and therefore probably will win those games. If that is indeed what happens, then it could mean that every team in the AFC besides Indy, New England, and possibly even the Titans will have at least 3 losses on the season after week 14. That is assuming that the loser of the week 9 showdown game doesn't slip up and lose another game or 2 along the way and that the Titans also don't lose another game between now and week 14.

If either the Colts or the Patriots are still undefeated after week 14 it will really start to get interesting. Both teams will have 3 games remaining after week 14. But, if either team is still undefeated after week 14 there will only be a few teams who could possibly be in a position to keep the battle for home field advantage close.

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If New England is still undefeated after week 14 they will be looking at Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee.

Indianapolis: A 1 loss Indianapolis team could challenge an undefeated New England team for home field advantage through week 16. If the Patriots are still undefeated after week 16 then that would mean that they had already beaten Indy in week 9 and would therefore hold the tie breaker against a 1 loss Indy team if both teams finished the season with 1 loss. So, if Indy loses in week 9 and wins the rest of their games they can only challenge an undefeated Patriots team for home field through week 16.

Jacksonville: If Jacksonville wins the rest of their games they would finish the season with 1 loss. They also would only be able to challenge an undefeated New England through week 16 because New England plays their last game against the Giants. If New England would lose their last game to the Giants they would still hold the tie break advantage over a 1 loss Jacksonville team by virtue of the fact that Jacksonville lost their 1 game to an AFC opponent.

Pittsburgh: New England plays Pittsburgh in week 14. If New England beats Pittsburgh in week 14 and neither team loses any other games, then Pittsburgh will not be able to challenge the Patriots for home field after week 14 because New England could lose their last 3 games and still hold the tie breaker over a 3 loss Pittsburgh team by virtue of their head to head match up.

Tennessee: If Tennessee wins the rest of their games they will finish with 2 losses. They could only challenge an undefeated New England team for home field advantage through week 15 because New England could lose their last 2 games of the season and still hold the tie breaker over Tennessee by virtue of a better win percentage against common opponents.

If Indianapolis is still undefeated after week 14 then they will be watching New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.

New England: If New England loses to Indy in week 9 and the Patriots win the rest of their games they can challenge an undefeated Colts team for home field advantage through week 16. If the Colts are still undefeated after week 16 then that would mean that they had already beaten New England in week 9 and would therefore hold the tie breaker against a 1 loss New England team if both teams finished the season with 1 loss. So, if the Patriots lose in week 9 and win the rest of their games they can only challenge an undefeated Colts team for home field through week 16.

Pittsburgh: If Pittsburgh wins the rest of their games they will finish the season with 2 losses. They could challenge an undefeated Indy team for home field advantage through week 16 because if Indy were to lose their last 2 games a 2 loss Pittsburgh team would hold the tie breaker over Indy because Indy would have lost their 2 games against Conference opponents, whereas Pittsburgh would have lost only 1 game to an AFC opponent and 1 game to an NFC opponent.

Jacksonville: If Indy is still undefeated after week 14 then that will mean that Indy will have beaten the Jaguars twice which would leave Jacksonville with 3 losses at best. The Colts could then lose their last 3 games and still win home field advantage over the Jaguars by virtue of the head to head meetings.

Tennessee: The Titans could possibly challenge an undefeated Colts team for home field advantage through week 16. If the Titans were to enter week 16 with only 2 losses then an undefeated Colts team would have to beat Houston in week 16 to ensure that their week 17 match up against a 2 loss Tennessee team didn't have the possibility of deciding the AFC South Champion.

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Of course all of the scenarios mentioned above are dependent on at least 1 of those "other" teams winning the rest of their games this season. After watching the first 7 weeks of the NFL season I doubt very much that Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, or Tennessee are capable of winning out. So, it will probably come down to whether or not the team that loses the week 9 match up between the Patriots and the Colts can win the rest of their games in order to keep the battle for home field advantage close until the end of the season. Even if that happens, there isn't much chance of an undefeated Colts or an undefeated Patriots team playing all their starters in week 17. And let's face it, both the Colts and the Patriots have some pretty tough games in week 17. The Patriots will be facing a New York Giants team who will probably be playing for playoff seeding and the Colts will be playing against a Tennessee team who will probably be doing the same.

Anything could happen, but the sooner an undefeated team clinches home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the worse chance we have of seeing a perfect season.