Early AFC Playoff Picture

I noticed yesterday during my marathon day of football watching that several of the NFL commentators were mentioning how easy the Indianapolis Colts' remaining schedule seems to be. These commentators were obviously implying that after the Colts' recent victories over the Steelers and the Patriots, Indy was well on their way to earning one of the two AFC wild card berths. This seemed a little presumptuous to me, so I thought I would take a look for myself at the developing AFC playoff picture.

If you know anything about the NFL, you already know the four Divisional winners in the AFC will all get automatic berths into the playoffs. Then the two "non-Division winning" AFC teams with the best records will also earn a playoff berth as wild cards. If you do the math you will see that there are 6 playoff berths available in the AFC.

The way I see it, there are still probably 11 teams left that have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs in the AFC. Let's take a look at those 11 teams, the Divisions in which they play, and their remaining schedules.

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AFC SOUTH

Tennessee Titans: The Titans are 9-0 and a lock to win the AFC SOUTH Division. They are definitely in the playoffs. They have the following games remaining: @ Jacksonville (4-5), NY Jets (6-3), @ Detroit (0-9), Cleveland (3-6), @ Houston (3-6), Pittsburgh (6-3), Indianapolis (5-4).

Total Offense: 313 ypg (21st) PTS/Game: 24.4 (10th)
Total Defense: 284.6 ypg (5th) PTS/Game: 13.0 (1st)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Minnesota, Baltimore, Chicago

The Titans have caught a couple of lucky breaks so far this year. I think they will lose 2 or 3 games before the regular season is over, especially if they decide to rest some players down the stretch. They should have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They're in!

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts currently sit at 5-4 with the following games remaining: Houston (3-6), @ San Diego (4-5), @ Cleveland (3-6), Cincinnati (1-8), Detroit (0-9), @ Jacksonville (4-5), Tennessee (9-0).

Total Offense: 310.8 ypg (22nd) PTS/Game: 21.2 (22nd)
Total Defense: 324.8 ypg (15th) PTS/Game: 21.9 (17th)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh

The Colts haven't looked too good on offense so far, but did you know they have faced the #1, #2, #5, and #6 ranked defenses in the NFL this season. And they went 3-1 in those games, losing only to Tennessee. On paper their remaining schedule looks pretty easy, but Houston, San Diego, and Jacksonville always play Indy tough. I think they need to go 5-2 in their remaining games to have a shot at a wild card berth.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags currently sit at 4-5 with the following games remaining: Tennessee (9-0), Minnesota (5-4), @ Houston (3-6), @ Chicago (5-4), Green Bay (4-5), Indianapolis (5-4), @ Baltimore (6-3).

Total Offense: 320.6 ypg (18th) PTS/Game 22.0 (17th)
Total Defense: 326.4 ypg (16th) PTS/Game: 20.7 (12th)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Denver

The Jags just look lifeless this season. I don't know what happened, but I think they are on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned. They're out!

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers currently sit in first place in the AFC NORTH with a record of 6-3. They have the following games remaining: San Diego (4-5), Cincinnati (1-8), @ New England (6-3), Dallas (5-4), @ Baltimore (6-3), @ Tennessee (9-0), Cleveland (3-6).

Total Offense: 288 ypg (26th) PTS/Game: 22.0 (17th)
Total Defense: 240.3 ypg (1st) PTS/Game: 15.6 (3rd)
Quality wins outside the AFC NORTH: Washington

Pittsburgh's defense has really surprised me this season. Pittsburgh will win the AFC NORTH, but I'm not sure they will go very far in the playoffs. They have played 4 quality teams this year and they lost to 3 of them (Indy, Philly, NY Giants). They're in!

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens currently sit at 6-3, but their remaining schedule is a BITCH! Here it is: @ NY Giants (8-1), Philadelphia (5-4), @ Cincinnati (1-8), Washington (6-3), Pittsburgh (6-3), @ Dallas (5-4), Jacksonville (4-5).

Total Offense: 323.7 ypg (16th) PTS/Game: 23.6 (12th)
Total Defense: 258.4 ypg (2nd) PTS/Game: 16.7 (5th)
Quality wins outside the AFC NORTH: none

The Ravens are about to find out just how good they really are. They have 7 games remaining and I will be surprised if they win more than two. I think the Ravens finish 8-8 on the year and miss the playoffs. They're out!

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos: The Broncos currently have a record of 5-4 with the following games remaining: @ Atlanta (6-3), Oakland (2-7), @ NY Jets (6-3), Kansas City (1-8), @ Carolina (7-2), Buffalo (5-4), @ San Diego (4-5).

Total Offense: 395.1 ypg (2nd) PTS/Game: 24.9 (9th)
Total Defense: 389.1 ypg (29th) PTS/Game: 27.9 (28th)
Quality wins outside the AFC WEST: Tampa Bay

I think the Broncos will win the AFC WEST, but only because their schedule is easier than San Diego's. The Broncos can score some points, but their defense isn't good enough to do anything once they get into the playoffs. They're in!

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers currently have a record of 4-5 with the following games remaining: Pittsburgh (6-3), Indianapolis (5-4), Atlanta (6-3), Oakland (2-7), @ Kansas City (1-8), @ Tampa Bay (6-3), Denver (5-4).

Total Offense: 349.3 ypg (10th) PTS/Game: 27.1 (5th)
Total Defense: 368.0 ypg (26th) PTS/Game: 24.2 (21st)
Quality wins outside the AFC WEST: NY Jets, New England

The Chargers are hard to predict. They have beaten some good teams, and they have lost to some bad teams. The next 3 weeks will decide San Diego's playoff fate. Pittsburgh, Indy, and Atlanta all come to town. I think if the Chargers lose 2/3 of those games they will be eliminated from the playoff hunt. They're out!

AFC EAST

New England Patriots: The Pats currently sit in first place in the AFC EAST with a record of 6-3. They have the following games remaining: NY Jets (6-3), @ Miami (5-4), Pittsburgh (6-3), @ Seattle (2-7), @ Oakland (2-7), Arizona (5-3), @ Buffalo (5-4).

Total Offense: 328.1 ypg (15th) PTS/Game: 20.9 (24th)
Total Defense: 301.0 ypg (12th) PTS/Game: 17.8 (6th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: Denver

The Pats have benefited greatly from a weak schedule. I'm just not sure how good they really are. I think the Pats will make the playoffs either by winning the AFC East outright or by claiming one of the wild card spots. They're in!

NY Jets: The Jets currently have a record of 6-3 and have the following games remaining: @ New England (6-3), @ Tennessee (9-0), Denver (5-4), @ San Francisco (2-6), Buffalo (5-4), @ Seattle (2-7), Miami (5-4).

Total Offense: 332.2 ypg (14th) PTS/Game: 28.3 (3rd)
Total Defense: 299.9 ypg (10th) PTS/Game: 21.1 (14th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: Arizona

The Jets have two tough games coming up against the Patriots and the Titans. They have to win one of those games to stay in the playoff hunt. They're in!

Buffalo Bills: The Bills currently sit with a record of 5-4 and have the following games remaining: Cleveland (3-6), @ Kansas City (1-8), San Francisco (2-6), Miami (5-4), @ NY Jets (6-3), @ Denver (5-4), New England (6-3).

Total Offense: 303.8 ypg (24th) PTS/Game: 21.3 (20th)
Total Defense: 309.2 ypg (14th) PTS/Game: 21.0 (13th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: San Diego

I'm sorry Buffalo fans, but I think the Bills are on the outside looking in. They should get some confidence by winning their next 3 games, but I don't see them making the playoffs. They're out!

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins currently have a record of 5-4 and have the following games remaining: Oakland (2-7), New England (6-3), @ St. Louis (2-7), @ Buffalo (5-4), San Francisco (2-6), @ Kansas City (1-8), @ NY Jets (6-3).

Total Offense: 350.3 ypg (8th) PTS/Game: 21.3 (20th)
Total Defense: 328.1 ypg (18th) PTS/Game: 20.2 (11th)
Quality wins outside of AFC EAST: Denver, San Diego

The Dolphins just might sneak into the playoffs. It is going to come down to how well the Fins do against their Division rivals down the stretch. Miami should beat Oakland (2-7), St. Louis (2-7), San Francisco (2-6), and Kansas City (1-8). If Miami can somehow win 2/3 against New England, Buffalo, and the NY Jets I think they will take the final wild card spot with a record of 11-5.

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So there you have it. I think the Titans, Steelers, Patriots, and Broncos will probably win their Divisions. I think the fight for the two wild card berths will probably come down to a fight between the Colts, Jets, and Dolphins. My money is on the Colts and Jets. But, I have been wrong before. I predict it will take at least 10 wins to earn a wild card in the AFC this year.