After last week's less than impressive 9-7 showing, I now stand at 106-69 for the season. I knew last week was going to be tough. Let's see if I can do better this week.
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Thanksgiving Day Match-ups (yawn). I don't know who chose these games for holiday viewing, but whoever did should be fired.
1) Tennessee vs. Detroit: Stick a fork in the Lions, I'm pretty sure this one is already over. Winner = Tennessee
2) Seattle vs. Dallas: I'm sure I'll be running the channels by the second quarter. I can only wonder if TBS will be running their "Christmas Story" marathon yet. Winner = Dallas
3) Arizona vs. Philadelphia: This has the potential to be the game of the day, but that isn't saying much. Winner = Arizona
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Sunday Games
4) San Francisco vs. Buffalo: The 49ers are a better football team than the Chiefs, but I still think the Bills should win this one at home. Winner = Buffalo
5) Baltimore vs. Cincinnati: The Ravens 'D" should wreak havoc in this one. Winner = Baltimore
6) Indianapolis vs. Cleveland: This could be an interesting game if the weather turns nasty. Indy tends to play to level of their competition so don't be surprised if the Brownies make a game of this. Winner = Indianapolis
7) Carolina vs. Green Bay: I just don't understand what happened to the Packers. But, I'm not sold on the Panthers. I'm taking the Pack at home. Winner = Green Bay
8) Miami vs. St. Louis: I just don't see any way the Rams can win this one. Winner = Miami
9) New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay: I think this one could go either way. The Saints won in their Week 1 match-up (24-20). My gut tells me to go with the home team. Winner = Tampa Bay
10) NY Giants vs. Washington: Anything can happen in this NFC EAST rivalry, but the Giants look to be firing on all cylinders right now. Winner = NY Giants
11) Atlanta vs. San Diego: The triumphant return of Michael Turner. This should be a good game. Winner = Atlanta
12) Pittsburgh vs. New England: This is the game of the week as far as I'm concerned. I just don't think the Steelers will score as many points as the Patriots. Winner = New England
13) Denver vs. NY Jets: Should be a fun game to watch. I like the Jets at home. Winner = NY Jets
14) Kansas City vs. Oakland: Both offenses suck. Both defenses suck. I wonder if anybody will even watch this game. Winner = Oakland
15) Chicago vs. Minnesota: First place in the NFC NORTH is on the line. I look for the Bears to employ the same kind of defensive strategy in this game they used against the Titans. In case you forgot, the Bears held the Titans to 20 yards rushing on 29 carries. Gus Frerotte will need to have a good game if the Vikings want to have any chance of winning. Winner = Chicago
16) Jacksonville vs. Houston: This is the Monday Night game? Last place in the AFC SOUTH is on the line. Their first meeting this season went to OT with Jacksonville winning. I like the Texans in this one. Winner = Houston
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
Return Of My NFL Power Rankings
I dropped my power rankings several weeks ago because they seemed absolutely useless. This has been one of the weirdest NFL seasons I can ever remember. It almost seems like nobody wants to win. But, after 12 weeks I decided I would bring back my top ten.
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1) NY Giants (10-1) : The G-Men rank #5 in total offense and #5 in total defense. They can run the ball on anybody. It looks like the only way they can lose is if Eli has a bad game, and he isn't having very many of those lately.
2) NY Jets (8-3) : The Jets rank #2 in points scored per game and they look like they are getting better as the season progresses. They have a really good chance of finishing 13-3 behind a resurgent Brett Favre.
3) Tennessee Titans (10-1) : The Titans are built for the playoffs. Their offense isn't that impressive now, but their strong running game and #2 ranked scoring defense will give them a decided advantage when the weather turns nasty.
4) Indianapolis Colts (7-4) : The Colts haven't looked pretty, but they are suddenly winning games against some decent competition. Let's not forget the Colts didn't look very good during the regular season two years ago and we all know that ended. I guarantee you this is an Indy team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Especially if Bob Sanders ever gets healthy.
5) New England Patriots (7-4) : Speaking of a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. The Pats record is clearly the result of them facing a pathetically easy schedule this season, but don't overlook them come playoff time. This team is well coached and has a lot of veteran leadership. Oh, and Matt Cassell is getting better every week.
6) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) : The next four weeks are going to tell us a lot about the Pittsburgh Steelers (Pats, Cowboys, Ravens, and Titans). The Steelers are well coached and they have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL.
7) Baltimore Ravens (7-4) : The Ravens haven't convinced me they are a Super Bowl contender yet, but their #2 ranked defense is good enough to win them some games in January.
8) Arizona Cardinals (7-4) : Their schedule hasn't been that tough, but they do have the #2 ranked offense and #10 ranked defense in the NFL.
9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) : The Bucs have the #4 ranked defense in the NFL. I have no idea just how good they really are, but I wouldn't want to face them in the playoffs.
10) Dallas Cowboys (7-4) : You could just as easily put the Redskins in this spot. Both teams could beat you on any given day, but both of them could also just as easily lay an egg. The Cowboys still have three tough games remaining (Steelers, Giants, and Ravens), while the Redskins only have two tough games left (Giants and Ravens). I still think the Cowboys are a better team than the Redskins, though.
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1) NY Giants (10-1) : The G-Men rank #5 in total offense and #5 in total defense. They can run the ball on anybody. It looks like the only way they can lose is if Eli has a bad game, and he isn't having very many of those lately.
2) NY Jets (8-3) : The Jets rank #2 in points scored per game and they look like they are getting better as the season progresses. They have a really good chance of finishing 13-3 behind a resurgent Brett Favre.
3) Tennessee Titans (10-1) : The Titans are built for the playoffs. Their offense isn't that impressive now, but their strong running game and #2 ranked scoring defense will give them a decided advantage when the weather turns nasty.
4) Indianapolis Colts (7-4) : The Colts haven't looked pretty, but they are suddenly winning games against some decent competition. Let's not forget the Colts didn't look very good during the regular season two years ago and we all know that ended. I guarantee you this is an Indy team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Especially if Bob Sanders ever gets healthy.
5) New England Patriots (7-4) : Speaking of a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. The Pats record is clearly the result of them facing a pathetically easy schedule this season, but don't overlook them come playoff time. This team is well coached and has a lot of veteran leadership. Oh, and Matt Cassell is getting better every week.
6) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) : The next four weeks are going to tell us a lot about the Pittsburgh Steelers (Pats, Cowboys, Ravens, and Titans). The Steelers are well coached and they have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL.
7) Baltimore Ravens (7-4) : The Ravens haven't convinced me they are a Super Bowl contender yet, but their #2 ranked defense is good enough to win them some games in January.
8) Arizona Cardinals (7-4) : Their schedule hasn't been that tough, but they do have the #2 ranked offense and #10 ranked defense in the NFL.
9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) : The Bucs have the #4 ranked defense in the NFL. I have no idea just how good they really are, but I wouldn't want to face them in the playoffs.
10) Dallas Cowboys (7-4) : You could just as easily put the Redskins in this spot. Both teams could beat you on any given day, but both of them could also just as easily lay an egg. The Cowboys still have three tough games remaining (Steelers, Giants, and Ravens), while the Redskins only have two tough games left (Giants and Ravens). I still think the Cowboys are a better team than the Redskins, though.
Friday, November 21, 2008
NFL Week 12 Predictions
Last week I correctly picked 11 games and missed 4, with the Cincinnati/Philadelphia game ending in a tie. I have decided not to count the tie in either category, so my record for the season now stands at 97-62. This week looks like a tough one.
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1) Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati: No Mucho Stinko and no Carson Palmer equal no chance for the Bungles. Winner = Pittsburgh
2) Tampa Bay vs. Detroit: I seriously think the Lions could make this one interesting, but I've learned my lesson picking against the Bucs. Winner = Tampa Bay
3) NY Jets vs. Tennessee: Conventional wisdom tells me to pick the Titans, but they are the worst 10-0 team I have ever seen. Winner = NY Jets
4) Buffalo vs. Kansas City: The Chiefs aren't as bad as their record indicates, but I have to go with the Bills in this contest. Winner = Buffalo
5) Chicago vs. St. Louis: The Monsters of the Midway should show up for this game. Winner = Chicago
6) New England vs. Miami: Miami is an up and coming team. I just don't think they have come up enough to beat the Pats in November. Winner = New England
7) Minnesota vs. Jacksonville: This is a tough one for me to call. I'm taking the home team. Winner = Jacksonville
8) Philadelphia vs. Baltimore: I'm just not sold on Baltimore. Winner = Philadelphia
9) Houston vs. Cleveland: I'm going with Cleveland in this game, but I'm not overly confident about it. The Browns' defense tackles like a bunch of middle school girls. Winner = Cleveland
10) San Francisco vs. Dallas: This isn't the match up it used to be. Winner = Dallas
11) Oakland vs. Denver: Jay Cutler will have his Thanksgiving feast a few days early. Winner = Denver
12) Washington vs. Seattle: The Seahawks have been such a disappointment this year. Winner = Washington
13) NY Giants vs. Arizona: The only way the Giants lose is if Eli has a horrendous game. I look for Warner to produce multiple turnovers under pressure. Winner = NY Giants
14) Carolina vs. Atlanta: I hate to do it, but I'm going with Carolina. Winner = Carolina
15) Indianapolis vs. San Diego: Neither team is as bad as everybody thinks. But, the Chargers always have a nice game plan for Indy. Winner = San Diego
16) Green Bay vs. New Orleans: I have to go with the Pack. Winner = Green Bay
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1) Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati: No Mucho Stinko and no Carson Palmer equal no chance for the Bungles. Winner = Pittsburgh
2) Tampa Bay vs. Detroit: I seriously think the Lions could make this one interesting, but I've learned my lesson picking against the Bucs. Winner = Tampa Bay
3) NY Jets vs. Tennessee: Conventional wisdom tells me to pick the Titans, but they are the worst 10-0 team I have ever seen. Winner = NY Jets
4) Buffalo vs. Kansas City: The Chiefs aren't as bad as their record indicates, but I have to go with the Bills in this contest. Winner = Buffalo
5) Chicago vs. St. Louis: The Monsters of the Midway should show up for this game. Winner = Chicago
6) New England vs. Miami: Miami is an up and coming team. I just don't think they have come up enough to beat the Pats in November. Winner = New England
7) Minnesota vs. Jacksonville: This is a tough one for me to call. I'm taking the home team. Winner = Jacksonville
8) Philadelphia vs. Baltimore: I'm just not sold on Baltimore. Winner = Philadelphia
9) Houston vs. Cleveland: I'm going with Cleveland in this game, but I'm not overly confident about it. The Browns' defense tackles like a bunch of middle school girls. Winner = Cleveland
10) San Francisco vs. Dallas: This isn't the match up it used to be. Winner = Dallas
11) Oakland vs. Denver: Jay Cutler will have his Thanksgiving feast a few days early. Winner = Denver
12) Washington vs. Seattle: The Seahawks have been such a disappointment this year. Winner = Washington
13) NY Giants vs. Arizona: The only way the Giants lose is if Eli has a horrendous game. I look for Warner to produce multiple turnovers under pressure. Winner = NY Giants
14) Carolina vs. Atlanta: I hate to do it, but I'm going with Carolina. Winner = Carolina
15) Indianapolis vs. San Diego: Neither team is as bad as everybody thinks. But, the Chargers always have a nice game plan for Indy. Winner = San Diego
16) Green Bay vs. New Orleans: I have to go with the Pack. Winner = Green Bay
Saturday, November 15, 2008
NFL Week 11 Predictions
Denver vs. Atlanta: The Broncos have been erratic on defense and Atlanta will run the ball. Winner = Atlanta
Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati: The Bengals suck. Winner = Philadelphia
Chicago vs. Green Bay: These NFC North contests are hard to pick. I'm taking the home team. Winner = Green Bay
Houston vs. Indianapolis: The Colts have won two big games in a row, but I'm not sold on them. Houston will give them a game. Winner = Indianapolis
New Orleans vs. Kansas City: The Saints should win this game, but Kansas City is showing improvement and may make this a close game. Winner = New Orleans
Oakland vs. Miami: The Dolphins JV schedule continues. Winner = Miami
Baltimore vs. NY Giants: I think the Giants will win this game, but I wouldn't be surprised if Baltimore wins. Winner = NY Giants
Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay: This game is a toss up. When I'm in doubt I usually go with the home team. Winner = Tampa Bay
Detroit vs. Carolina: This probably won't be much of a game. Winner = Carolina
St. Louis vs. San Francisco: St. Louis could make this interesting, but I'd be crazy to pick the Rams. Winner = San Francisco
Arizona vs. Seattle: I believe Matt Hasselback is supposed to return to the lineup, but Arizona is going to score some points. Winner = Arizona
San Diego vs. Pittsburgh: I don't believe for a second that Pittsburgh will lose two in a row at home. Winner = Pittsburgh
Tennessee vs. Jacksonville: This game has upset written all over it. Winner = Jacksonville
Dallas vs. Washington: I think Dallas is starting to hemorrhage and I just don't think even Tony Romo can stop the bleeding. Winner = Washington
Cleveland vs. Buffalo: My head is telling me to go with Buffalo, but my gut is telling me that Brady Quinn will carry the Browns to victory. Winner = Cleveland
Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati: The Bengals suck. Winner = Philadelphia
Chicago vs. Green Bay: These NFC North contests are hard to pick. I'm taking the home team. Winner = Green Bay
Houston vs. Indianapolis: The Colts have won two big games in a row, but I'm not sold on them. Houston will give them a game. Winner = Indianapolis
New Orleans vs. Kansas City: The Saints should win this game, but Kansas City is showing improvement and may make this a close game. Winner = New Orleans
Oakland vs. Miami: The Dolphins JV schedule continues. Winner = Miami
Baltimore vs. NY Giants: I think the Giants will win this game, but I wouldn't be surprised if Baltimore wins. Winner = NY Giants
Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay: This game is a toss up. When I'm in doubt I usually go with the home team. Winner = Tampa Bay
Detroit vs. Carolina: This probably won't be much of a game. Winner = Carolina
St. Louis vs. San Francisco: St. Louis could make this interesting, but I'd be crazy to pick the Rams. Winner = San Francisco
Arizona vs. Seattle: I believe Matt Hasselback is supposed to return to the lineup, but Arizona is going to score some points. Winner = Arizona
San Diego vs. Pittsburgh: I don't believe for a second that Pittsburgh will lose two in a row at home. Winner = Pittsburgh
Tennessee vs. Jacksonville: This game has upset written all over it. Winner = Jacksonville
Dallas vs. Washington: I think Dallas is starting to hemorrhage and I just don't think even Tony Romo can stop the bleeding. Winner = Washington
Cleveland vs. Buffalo: My head is telling me to go with Buffalo, but my gut is telling me that Brady Quinn will carry the Browns to victory. Winner = Cleveland
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Week 11, Thursday Night Prediction
I had a good week last week (11-3), and my record now stands at 86-58 for the season. Here is the Thursday Night skinny.
NY Jets vs. New England: Statistically, these two teams are almost mirror images of each other. The Pats won the Week 2 meeting between these two teams 19-10. But, both of these teams have changed quite a bit since then. I expect a different kind of game this week from the Jets, but I think the result will probably be the same. Winner = New England
NY Jets vs. New England: Statistically, these two teams are almost mirror images of each other. The Pats won the Week 2 meeting between these two teams 19-10. But, both of these teams have changed quite a bit since then. I expect a different kind of game this week from the Jets, but I think the result will probably be the same. Winner = New England
Monday, November 10, 2008
Early AFC Playoff Picture
I noticed yesterday during my marathon day of football watching that several of the NFL commentators were mentioning how easy the Indianapolis Colts' remaining schedule seems to be. These commentators were obviously implying that after the Colts' recent victories over the Steelers and the Patriots, Indy was well on their way to earning one of the two AFC wild card berths. This seemed a little presumptuous to me, so I thought I would take a look for myself at the developing AFC playoff picture.
If you know anything about the NFL, you already know the four Divisional winners in the AFC will all get automatic berths into the playoffs. Then the two "non-Division winning" AFC teams with the best records will also earn a playoff berth as wild cards. If you do the math you will see that there are 6 playoff berths available in the AFC.
The way I see it, there are still probably 11 teams left that have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs in the AFC. Let's take a look at those 11 teams, the Divisions in which they play, and their remaining schedules.
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AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans: The Titans are 9-0 and a lock to win the AFC SOUTH Division. They are definitely in the playoffs. They have the following games remaining: @ Jacksonville (4-5), NY Jets (6-3), @ Detroit (0-9), Cleveland (3-6), @ Houston (3-6), Pittsburgh (6-3), Indianapolis (5-4).
Total Offense: 313 ypg (21st) PTS/Game: 24.4 (10th)
Total Defense: 284.6 ypg (5th) PTS/Game: 13.0 (1st)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Minnesota, Baltimore, Chicago
The Titans have caught a couple of lucky breaks so far this year. I think they will lose 2 or 3 games before the regular season is over, especially if they decide to rest some players down the stretch. They should have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They're in!
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts currently sit at 5-4 with the following games remaining: Houston (3-6), @ San Diego (4-5), @ Cleveland (3-6), Cincinnati (1-8), Detroit (0-9), @ Jacksonville (4-5), Tennessee (9-0).
Total Offense: 310.8 ypg (22nd) PTS/Game: 21.2 (22nd)
Total Defense: 324.8 ypg (15th) PTS/Game: 21.9 (17th)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh
The Colts haven't looked too good on offense so far, but did you know they have faced the #1, #2, #5, and #6 ranked defenses in the NFL this season. And they went 3-1 in those games, losing only to Tennessee. On paper their remaining schedule looks pretty easy, but Houston, San Diego, and Jacksonville always play Indy tough. I think they need to go 5-2 in their remaining games to have a shot at a wild card berth.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags currently sit at 4-5 with the following games remaining: Tennessee (9-0), Minnesota (5-4), @ Houston (3-6), @ Chicago (5-4), Green Bay (4-5), Indianapolis (5-4), @ Baltimore (6-3).
Total Offense: 320.6 ypg (18th) PTS/Game 22.0 (17th)
Total Defense: 326.4 ypg (16th) PTS/Game: 20.7 (12th)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Denver
The Jags just look lifeless this season. I don't know what happened, but I think they are on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned. They're out!
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers currently sit in first place in the AFC NORTH with a record of 6-3. They have the following games remaining: San Diego (4-5), Cincinnati (1-8), @ New England (6-3), Dallas (5-4), @ Baltimore (6-3), @ Tennessee (9-0), Cleveland (3-6).
Total Offense: 288 ypg (26th) PTS/Game: 22.0 (17th)
Total Defense: 240.3 ypg (1st) PTS/Game: 15.6 (3rd)
Quality wins outside the AFC NORTH: Washington
Pittsburgh's defense has really surprised me this season. Pittsburgh will win the AFC NORTH, but I'm not sure they will go very far in the playoffs. They have played 4 quality teams this year and they lost to 3 of them (Indy, Philly, NY Giants). They're in!
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens currently sit at 6-3, but their remaining schedule is a BITCH! Here it is: @ NY Giants (8-1), Philadelphia (5-4), @ Cincinnati (1-8), Washington (6-3), Pittsburgh (6-3), @ Dallas (5-4), Jacksonville (4-5).
Total Offense: 323.7 ypg (16th) PTS/Game: 23.6 (12th)
Total Defense: 258.4 ypg (2nd) PTS/Game: 16.7 (5th)
Quality wins outside the AFC NORTH: none
The Ravens are about to find out just how good they really are. They have 7 games remaining and I will be surprised if they win more than two. I think the Ravens finish 8-8 on the year and miss the playoffs. They're out!
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: The Broncos currently have a record of 5-4 with the following games remaining: @ Atlanta (6-3), Oakland (2-7), @ NY Jets (6-3), Kansas City (1-8), @ Carolina (7-2), Buffalo (5-4), @ San Diego (4-5).
Total Offense: 395.1 ypg (2nd) PTS/Game: 24.9 (9th)
Total Defense: 389.1 ypg (29th) PTS/Game: 27.9 (28th)
Quality wins outside the AFC WEST: Tampa Bay
I think the Broncos will win the AFC WEST, but only because their schedule is easier than San Diego's. The Broncos can score some points, but their defense isn't good enough to do anything once they get into the playoffs. They're in!
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers currently have a record of 4-5 with the following games remaining: Pittsburgh (6-3), Indianapolis (5-4), Atlanta (6-3), Oakland (2-7), @ Kansas City (1-8), @ Tampa Bay (6-3), Denver (5-4).
Total Offense: 349.3 ypg (10th) PTS/Game: 27.1 (5th)
Total Defense: 368.0 ypg (26th) PTS/Game: 24.2 (21st)
Quality wins outside the AFC WEST: NY Jets, New England
The Chargers are hard to predict. They have beaten some good teams, and they have lost to some bad teams. The next 3 weeks will decide San Diego's playoff fate. Pittsburgh, Indy, and Atlanta all come to town. I think if the Chargers lose 2/3 of those games they will be eliminated from the playoff hunt. They're out!
AFC EAST
New England Patriots: The Pats currently sit in first place in the AFC EAST with a record of 6-3. They have the following games remaining: NY Jets (6-3), @ Miami (5-4), Pittsburgh (6-3), @ Seattle (2-7), @ Oakland (2-7), Arizona (5-3), @ Buffalo (5-4).
Total Offense: 328.1 ypg (15th) PTS/Game: 20.9 (24th)
Total Defense: 301.0 ypg (12th) PTS/Game: 17.8 (6th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: Denver
The Pats have benefited greatly from a weak schedule. I'm just not sure how good they really are. I think the Pats will make the playoffs either by winning the AFC East outright or by claiming one of the wild card spots. They're in!
NY Jets: The Jets currently have a record of 6-3 and have the following games remaining: @ New England (6-3), @ Tennessee (9-0), Denver (5-4), @ San Francisco (2-6), Buffalo (5-4), @ Seattle (2-7), Miami (5-4).
Total Offense: 332.2 ypg (14th) PTS/Game: 28.3 (3rd)
Total Defense: 299.9 ypg (10th) PTS/Game: 21.1 (14th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: Arizona
The Jets have two tough games coming up against the Patriots and the Titans. They have to win one of those games to stay in the playoff hunt. They're in!
Buffalo Bills: The Bills currently sit with a record of 5-4 and have the following games remaining: Cleveland (3-6), @ Kansas City (1-8), San Francisco (2-6), Miami (5-4), @ NY Jets (6-3), @ Denver (5-4), New England (6-3).
Total Offense: 303.8 ypg (24th) PTS/Game: 21.3 (20th)
Total Defense: 309.2 ypg (14th) PTS/Game: 21.0 (13th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: San Diego
I'm sorry Buffalo fans, but I think the Bills are on the outside looking in. They should get some confidence by winning their next 3 games, but I don't see them making the playoffs. They're out!
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins currently have a record of 5-4 and have the following games remaining: Oakland (2-7), New England (6-3), @ St. Louis (2-7), @ Buffalo (5-4), San Francisco (2-6), @ Kansas City (1-8), @ NY Jets (6-3).
Total Offense: 350.3 ypg (8th) PTS/Game: 21.3 (20th)
Total Defense: 328.1 ypg (18th) PTS/Game: 20.2 (11th)
Quality wins outside of AFC EAST: Denver, San Diego
The Dolphins just might sneak into the playoffs. It is going to come down to how well the Fins do against their Division rivals down the stretch. Miami should beat Oakland (2-7), St. Louis (2-7), San Francisco (2-6), and Kansas City (1-8). If Miami can somehow win 2/3 against New England, Buffalo, and the NY Jets I think they will take the final wild card spot with a record of 11-5.
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So there you have it. I think the Titans, Steelers, Patriots, and Broncos will probably win their Divisions. I think the fight for the two wild card berths will probably come down to a fight between the Colts, Jets, and Dolphins. My money is on the Colts and Jets. But, I have been wrong before. I predict it will take at least 10 wins to earn a wild card in the AFC this year.
If you know anything about the NFL, you already know the four Divisional winners in the AFC will all get automatic berths into the playoffs. Then the two "non-Division winning" AFC teams with the best records will also earn a playoff berth as wild cards. If you do the math you will see that there are 6 playoff berths available in the AFC.
The way I see it, there are still probably 11 teams left that have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs in the AFC. Let's take a look at those 11 teams, the Divisions in which they play, and their remaining schedules.
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AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans: The Titans are 9-0 and a lock to win the AFC SOUTH Division. They are definitely in the playoffs. They have the following games remaining: @ Jacksonville (4-5), NY Jets (6-3), @ Detroit (0-9), Cleveland (3-6), @ Houston (3-6), Pittsburgh (6-3), Indianapolis (5-4).
Total Offense: 313 ypg (21st) PTS/Game: 24.4 (10th)
Total Defense: 284.6 ypg (5th) PTS/Game: 13.0 (1st)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Minnesota, Baltimore, Chicago
The Titans have caught a couple of lucky breaks so far this year. I think they will lose 2 or 3 games before the regular season is over, especially if they decide to rest some players down the stretch. They should have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They're in!
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts currently sit at 5-4 with the following games remaining: Houston (3-6), @ San Diego (4-5), @ Cleveland (3-6), Cincinnati (1-8), Detroit (0-9), @ Jacksonville (4-5), Tennessee (9-0).
Total Offense: 310.8 ypg (22nd) PTS/Game: 21.2 (22nd)
Total Defense: 324.8 ypg (15th) PTS/Game: 21.9 (17th)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh
The Colts haven't looked too good on offense so far, but did you know they have faced the #1, #2, #5, and #6 ranked defenses in the NFL this season. And they went 3-1 in those games, losing only to Tennessee. On paper their remaining schedule looks pretty easy, but Houston, San Diego, and Jacksonville always play Indy tough. I think they need to go 5-2 in their remaining games to have a shot at a wild card berth.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags currently sit at 4-5 with the following games remaining: Tennessee (9-0), Minnesota (5-4), @ Houston (3-6), @ Chicago (5-4), Green Bay (4-5), Indianapolis (5-4), @ Baltimore (6-3).
Total Offense: 320.6 ypg (18th) PTS/Game 22.0 (17th)
Total Defense: 326.4 ypg (16th) PTS/Game: 20.7 (12th)
Quality wins outside the AFC South: Denver
The Jags just look lifeless this season. I don't know what happened, but I think they are on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned. They're out!
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers currently sit in first place in the AFC NORTH with a record of 6-3. They have the following games remaining: San Diego (4-5), Cincinnati (1-8), @ New England (6-3), Dallas (5-4), @ Baltimore (6-3), @ Tennessee (9-0), Cleveland (3-6).
Total Offense: 288 ypg (26th) PTS/Game: 22.0 (17th)
Total Defense: 240.3 ypg (1st) PTS/Game: 15.6 (3rd)
Quality wins outside the AFC NORTH: Washington
Pittsburgh's defense has really surprised me this season. Pittsburgh will win the AFC NORTH, but I'm not sure they will go very far in the playoffs. They have played 4 quality teams this year and they lost to 3 of them (Indy, Philly, NY Giants). They're in!
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens currently sit at 6-3, but their remaining schedule is a BITCH! Here it is: @ NY Giants (8-1), Philadelphia (5-4), @ Cincinnati (1-8), Washington (6-3), Pittsburgh (6-3), @ Dallas (5-4), Jacksonville (4-5).
Total Offense: 323.7 ypg (16th) PTS/Game: 23.6 (12th)
Total Defense: 258.4 ypg (2nd) PTS/Game: 16.7 (5th)
Quality wins outside the AFC NORTH: none
The Ravens are about to find out just how good they really are. They have 7 games remaining and I will be surprised if they win more than two. I think the Ravens finish 8-8 on the year and miss the playoffs. They're out!
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos: The Broncos currently have a record of 5-4 with the following games remaining: @ Atlanta (6-3), Oakland (2-7), @ NY Jets (6-3), Kansas City (1-8), @ Carolina (7-2), Buffalo (5-4), @ San Diego (4-5).
Total Offense: 395.1 ypg (2nd) PTS/Game: 24.9 (9th)
Total Defense: 389.1 ypg (29th) PTS/Game: 27.9 (28th)
Quality wins outside the AFC WEST: Tampa Bay
I think the Broncos will win the AFC WEST, but only because their schedule is easier than San Diego's. The Broncos can score some points, but their defense isn't good enough to do anything once they get into the playoffs. They're in!
San Diego Chargers: The Chargers currently have a record of 4-5 with the following games remaining: Pittsburgh (6-3), Indianapolis (5-4), Atlanta (6-3), Oakland (2-7), @ Kansas City (1-8), @ Tampa Bay (6-3), Denver (5-4).
Total Offense: 349.3 ypg (10th) PTS/Game: 27.1 (5th)
Total Defense: 368.0 ypg (26th) PTS/Game: 24.2 (21st)
Quality wins outside the AFC WEST: NY Jets, New England
The Chargers are hard to predict. They have beaten some good teams, and they have lost to some bad teams. The next 3 weeks will decide San Diego's playoff fate. Pittsburgh, Indy, and Atlanta all come to town. I think if the Chargers lose 2/3 of those games they will be eliminated from the playoff hunt. They're out!
AFC EAST
New England Patriots: The Pats currently sit in first place in the AFC EAST with a record of 6-3. They have the following games remaining: NY Jets (6-3), @ Miami (5-4), Pittsburgh (6-3), @ Seattle (2-7), @ Oakland (2-7), Arizona (5-3), @ Buffalo (5-4).
Total Offense: 328.1 ypg (15th) PTS/Game: 20.9 (24th)
Total Defense: 301.0 ypg (12th) PTS/Game: 17.8 (6th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: Denver
The Pats have benefited greatly from a weak schedule. I'm just not sure how good they really are. I think the Pats will make the playoffs either by winning the AFC East outright or by claiming one of the wild card spots. They're in!
NY Jets: The Jets currently have a record of 6-3 and have the following games remaining: @ New England (6-3), @ Tennessee (9-0), Denver (5-4), @ San Francisco (2-6), Buffalo (5-4), @ Seattle (2-7), Miami (5-4).
Total Offense: 332.2 ypg (14th) PTS/Game: 28.3 (3rd)
Total Defense: 299.9 ypg (10th) PTS/Game: 21.1 (14th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: Arizona
The Jets have two tough games coming up against the Patriots and the Titans. They have to win one of those games to stay in the playoff hunt. They're in!
Buffalo Bills: The Bills currently sit with a record of 5-4 and have the following games remaining: Cleveland (3-6), @ Kansas City (1-8), San Francisco (2-6), Miami (5-4), @ NY Jets (6-3), @ Denver (5-4), New England (6-3).
Total Offense: 303.8 ypg (24th) PTS/Game: 21.3 (20th)
Total Defense: 309.2 ypg (14th) PTS/Game: 21.0 (13th)
Quality wins outside the AFC EAST: San Diego
I'm sorry Buffalo fans, but I think the Bills are on the outside looking in. They should get some confidence by winning their next 3 games, but I don't see them making the playoffs. They're out!
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins currently have a record of 5-4 and have the following games remaining: Oakland (2-7), New England (6-3), @ St. Louis (2-7), @ Buffalo (5-4), San Francisco (2-6), @ Kansas City (1-8), @ NY Jets (6-3).
Total Offense: 350.3 ypg (8th) PTS/Game: 21.3 (20th)
Total Defense: 328.1 ypg (18th) PTS/Game: 20.2 (11th)
Quality wins outside of AFC EAST: Denver, San Diego
The Dolphins just might sneak into the playoffs. It is going to come down to how well the Fins do against their Division rivals down the stretch. Miami should beat Oakland (2-7), St. Louis (2-7), San Francisco (2-6), and Kansas City (1-8). If Miami can somehow win 2/3 against New England, Buffalo, and the NY Jets I think they will take the final wild card spot with a record of 11-5.
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So there you have it. I think the Titans, Steelers, Patriots, and Broncos will probably win their Divisions. I think the fight for the two wild card berths will probably come down to a fight between the Colts, Jets, and Dolphins. My money is on the Colts and Jets. But, I have been wrong before. I predict it will take at least 10 wins to earn a wild card in the AFC this year.
Friday, November 7, 2008
NFL Week 10 Predictions (2)
I missed the winner of the Broncos/Browns game last night to make me 0-1 already for this week, but I did go 9-5 again last week. As of today, I have a record of 75-56 on the season.
Now, for the rest of my Week 10 predictions.
1) New Orleans vs. Atlanta: Did you know Atlanta has the 7th ranked offense in the NFL and New Orleans has the 1st ranked offense in the NFL? But, the Falcon's have a better defense. Winner = Atlanta
2) Tennessee vs. Chicago: I think this game will be close. If Orton was healthy I would pick the Bears. But, it looks like Grossman will be under center for Chicago. Winner = Tennessee
3) Jacksonville vs. Detroit: The Jaguars haven't shown me much this year, but the Lions are awful. Winner = Jacksonville
4) Seattle vs. Miami: I have to go with the Fins at home. Winner = Miami
5) Green Bay vs. Minnesota: There is nothing like an NFC North rivalry game. This game should be close. Winner = Green Bay
6) Buffalo vs. New England: The Pats let one slip away last week. I don't think they will lose two in a row. Winner = New England
7) St. Louis vs. NY Jets: I don't think the Jets are as good as everyone seems to think they are, but I just can't see them losing to the Rams. Winner = NY Jets
8) Baltimore vs. Houston: The Texans are tough at home, but Rosenfels will probably fold under the Ravens' defensive pressure. Winner = Baltimore
9) Carolina vs. Oakland: The Raiders are a joke. Winner = Carolina
10) Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh: The Steeler defense is just too good. The Colt defense is just too bad. Winner = Pittsburgh
11) Kansas City vs. San Diego: The Chargers haven't looked too good, but I'm taking them at home. Winner = San Diego
12) NY Giants vs. Philadelphia: This is the game of the week. It should be close, but the G-Men will be up for this game. Winner = NY Giants
13) San Francisco vs. Arizona: I just don't see how the 49ers could possibly win this game. Winner = Arizona
Now, for the rest of my Week 10 predictions.
1) New Orleans vs. Atlanta: Did you know Atlanta has the 7th ranked offense in the NFL and New Orleans has the 1st ranked offense in the NFL? But, the Falcon's have a better defense. Winner = Atlanta
2) Tennessee vs. Chicago: I think this game will be close. If Orton was healthy I would pick the Bears. But, it looks like Grossman will be under center for Chicago. Winner = Tennessee
3) Jacksonville vs. Detroit: The Jaguars haven't shown me much this year, but the Lions are awful. Winner = Jacksonville
4) Seattle vs. Miami: I have to go with the Fins at home. Winner = Miami
5) Green Bay vs. Minnesota: There is nothing like an NFC North rivalry game. This game should be close. Winner = Green Bay
6) Buffalo vs. New England: The Pats let one slip away last week. I don't think they will lose two in a row. Winner = New England
7) St. Louis vs. NY Jets: I don't think the Jets are as good as everyone seems to think they are, but I just can't see them losing to the Rams. Winner = NY Jets
8) Baltimore vs. Houston: The Texans are tough at home, but Rosenfels will probably fold under the Ravens' defensive pressure. Winner = Baltimore
9) Carolina vs. Oakland: The Raiders are a joke. Winner = Carolina
10) Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh: The Steeler defense is just too good. The Colt defense is just too bad. Winner = Pittsburgh
11) Kansas City vs. San Diego: The Chargers haven't looked too good, but I'm taking them at home. Winner = San Diego
12) NY Giants vs. Philadelphia: This is the game of the week. It should be close, but the G-Men will be up for this game. Winner = NY Giants
13) San Francisco vs. Arizona: I just don't see how the 49ers could possibly win this game. Winner = Arizona
Thursday, November 6, 2008
NFL Week 10 Predictions (part 1)
I usually don't do my picks until Thursday night or Friday. But, since this week sees the return of Thursday Night Football I will go ahead and give you my pick for tonight's game. Then, sometime tomorrow I will follow up with my picks for the rest of this weekend's NFL schedule.
1) Denver vs. Cleveland: There are going to be a lot of eyes watching this one. On paper the Broncos seem to have an advantage. Denver brings in the NFL's 3rd rated offense and 29th ranked defense against Cleveland's 28th ranked offense and 25th ranked defense. I'm going with the kid, though. I think Quinn will be more consistent than Anderson and put together some long drives that will help keep Denver's offense off the field. Winner = Cleveland
1) Denver vs. Cleveland: There are going to be a lot of eyes watching this one. On paper the Broncos seem to have an advantage. Denver brings in the NFL's 3rd rated offense and 29th ranked defense against Cleveland's 28th ranked offense and 25th ranked defense. I'm going with the kid, though. I think Quinn will be more consistent than Anderson and put together some long drives that will help keep Denver's offense off the field. Winner = Cleveland
Monday, November 3, 2008
The Quinn Era Begins
For better, or worse.......
The Cleveland Browns announced today that Brady Quinn will replace Derek Anderson at the starting quarterback position for the upcoming game against the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. It's about time!
I'm not sure if Brady Quinn will be any better than Derek Anderson, but giving Quinn some playing time is the only way we'll ever find out. Now let's just hope that Chef (Romeo Crennel) will show the same kind of patience with Quinn that he has shown with Anderson. I say let the kid start the remaining games this season so that we can get an idea of just how good, or bad, he is.
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My Take On The Benching Of Anderson
Unlike Trent Dilfer, I do not think benching Derek Anderson was a bad idea. Dilfer seems to think that benching DA was a "knee jerk" reaction based on "public opinion." I tend to think it was decision that came far too late to save this season for the Browns, but it may have been in time to give the Browns management a fair idea of what they may have for next season.
Trent Dilfer needs to take a hard look at what Derek Anderson has actually accomplished in Cleveland this season (and for his career).
1) Anderson currently ranks 31st out of 35 significantly relevant QBs in the NFL with a QB rating of 68.9. The only QBs that rank below DA in this category are Tyler Thigpen (67.6), Ryan Fitzpatrick (66.6), Brian Griese (64.6), and Matt Hasselback (57.7).
2) Anderson ranks 33rd out of 35 QBs in completion percentage at 49.8 percent. The only two QBs who rank below DA in this category are Matt Hasselback (49.2) and JaMarcus Russell (48.6).
3) In 29 games for the Cleveland Browns, DA now has a career completion percentage of 54.7 with 43 touchdown passes and 34 interceptions. That all adds up to a career QB rating of 76.2.
To put Anderson's career numbers in perspective, I took the liberty of collecting some other former Cleveland Brown QB career statistics.
Kelly Holcomb: In 37 career games, Holcomb has a completion percentage of 63.3 with 39 touchdown passes and 38 interceptions and a QB rating of 79.2.
Charlie Frye: In 22 career games, Frye has a completion percentage of 62.0 with 16 touchdowns and 25 interceptions with a QB rating of 70.4.
Tim Couch: In 62 career games, Couch has a completion percentage of 59.8 with 64 touchdowns and 67 interceptions with a QB rating of 75.1.
Trent Dilfer: In 130 games, Dilfer has a completion percentage of 55.5 with 113 touchdowns and 129 interceptions with a QB rating of 70.2.
The one thing all four of the above quarterbacks have in common is they all SUCK. And if you compare their career statistics with those of Derek Anderson I think everybody will agree they are statistically similar. And yes, the statistics seem to indicate that Trent Dilfer may have been the worst of all five of the QBs mentioned. Trent does have a Super Bowl ring, but I think anybody who knows anything about football will tell you that the Ravens won that Championship in spite of Trent Dilfer, not because of him.
The Cleveland Browns decided to give Brady Quinn a chance to start this week because they need to know just how good (or bad) he really is so that they can begin planning for next season. Derek Anderson is a proven commodity. The Browns already know that Anderson will probably always have a sub 60 percent completion percentage. The Browns already know that Anderson is capable of doing great things on the field, and that he is capable of completely falling apart mentally at the drop of a hat. They already know that he has a rocket arm and that the only consistent thing about his performance is his inconsistency.
The only thing the Browns know about Brady Quinn is how he practices and that they gave up a lot to get him.
I don't know if Quinn is an NFL quarterback, but I do know that he was a four year starter at Notre Dame. And, the kid was phenomenal during his Junior and Senior seasons throwing for over 7,000 yards with a completion percentage of 63.3 with 69 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions during those two seasons.
Derek Anderson played his college ball at Oregon State. During his final two years of college he threw for over 7,500 yards with a completion percentage of 52.7 with 53 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. Anderson's college statistics are remarkably similar to what he has done in the NFL.
I think it is time to find out if Quinn's NFL statistics will be anywhere near what he accomplished in college. Time will tell. Let's just hope that Romeo will show the kid the same kind of patience that he afforded Anderson.
The Cleveland Browns announced today that Brady Quinn will replace Derek Anderson at the starting quarterback position for the upcoming game against the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. It's about time!
I'm not sure if Brady Quinn will be any better than Derek Anderson, but giving Quinn some playing time is the only way we'll ever find out. Now let's just hope that Chef (Romeo Crennel) will show the same kind of patience with Quinn that he has shown with Anderson. I say let the kid start the remaining games this season so that we can get an idea of just how good, or bad, he is.
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My Take On The Benching Of Anderson
Unlike Trent Dilfer, I do not think benching Derek Anderson was a bad idea. Dilfer seems to think that benching DA was a "knee jerk" reaction based on "public opinion." I tend to think it was decision that came far too late to save this season for the Browns, but it may have been in time to give the Browns management a fair idea of what they may have for next season.
Trent Dilfer needs to take a hard look at what Derek Anderson has actually accomplished in Cleveland this season (and for his career).
1) Anderson currently ranks 31st out of 35 significantly relevant QBs in the NFL with a QB rating of 68.9. The only QBs that rank below DA in this category are Tyler Thigpen (67.6), Ryan Fitzpatrick (66.6), Brian Griese (64.6), and Matt Hasselback (57.7).
2) Anderson ranks 33rd out of 35 QBs in completion percentage at 49.8 percent. The only two QBs who rank below DA in this category are Matt Hasselback (49.2) and JaMarcus Russell (48.6).
3) In 29 games for the Cleveland Browns, DA now has a career completion percentage of 54.7 with 43 touchdown passes and 34 interceptions. That all adds up to a career QB rating of 76.2.
To put Anderson's career numbers in perspective, I took the liberty of collecting some other former Cleveland Brown QB career statistics.
Kelly Holcomb: In 37 career games, Holcomb has a completion percentage of 63.3 with 39 touchdown passes and 38 interceptions and a QB rating of 79.2.
Charlie Frye: In 22 career games, Frye has a completion percentage of 62.0 with 16 touchdowns and 25 interceptions with a QB rating of 70.4.
Tim Couch: In 62 career games, Couch has a completion percentage of 59.8 with 64 touchdowns and 67 interceptions with a QB rating of 75.1.
Trent Dilfer: In 130 games, Dilfer has a completion percentage of 55.5 with 113 touchdowns and 129 interceptions with a QB rating of 70.2.
The one thing all four of the above quarterbacks have in common is they all SUCK. And if you compare their career statistics with those of Derek Anderson I think everybody will agree they are statistically similar. And yes, the statistics seem to indicate that Trent Dilfer may have been the worst of all five of the QBs mentioned. Trent does have a Super Bowl ring, but I think anybody who knows anything about football will tell you that the Ravens won that Championship in spite of Trent Dilfer, not because of him.
The Cleveland Browns decided to give Brady Quinn a chance to start this week because they need to know just how good (or bad) he really is so that they can begin planning for next season. Derek Anderson is a proven commodity. The Browns already know that Anderson will probably always have a sub 60 percent completion percentage. The Browns already know that Anderson is capable of doing great things on the field, and that he is capable of completely falling apart mentally at the drop of a hat. They already know that he has a rocket arm and that the only consistent thing about his performance is his inconsistency.
The only thing the Browns know about Brady Quinn is how he practices and that they gave up a lot to get him.
I don't know if Quinn is an NFL quarterback, but I do know that he was a four year starter at Notre Dame. And, the kid was phenomenal during his Junior and Senior seasons throwing for over 7,000 yards with a completion percentage of 63.3 with 69 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions during those two seasons.
Derek Anderson played his college ball at Oregon State. During his final two years of college he threw for over 7,500 yards with a completion percentage of 52.7 with 53 touchdowns and 41 interceptions. Anderson's college statistics are remarkably similar to what he has done in the NFL.
I think it is time to find out if Quinn's NFL statistics will be anywhere near what he accomplished in college. Time will tell. Let's just hope that Romeo will show the kid the same kind of patience that he afforded Anderson.
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