Making The Argument

Here it is, February 19th, and my beloved Kentucky Wildcats have an overall record of 13-10. All the so-called basketball experts have already written off the Wildcats' chances of making the Big Dance, especially after Big Blue's recent humiliating loss to Vanderbilt. But, I think there should still be some hope in the Bluegrass State. Sure, Kentucky has had some embarrassing losses this year. But, has anybody even bothered to look at how the opponents that beat UK this season are doing against everybody else?

There is still no excuse for the losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego, but I think it is easy to make the argument that none of Kentucky's other losses are looking so bad anymore. If you throw out the losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego, Kentucky's other 8 losses were to pretty respectable teams:

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North Carolina is 24-2 and currently ranked #3 in the nation. The Tar Heels only beat Kentucky by 9 points. Pretty respectable loss if you ask me.

Indiana is 21-4 and ranked #15 in the nation. The Hoosiers are also 10-2 this season in Big Ten play. UK lost to Indiana by 19 points, but the game was in Bloomington which is a tough place to play.

UAB is 17-8 and sitting in 3rd place in Conference USA behind only Memphis and Houston. Kentucky only lost to UAB by 3 points on a day when Robert Vaden was absolutely on fire scoring 33 points in the game. Maybe somebody should go ask John Calipari and his undefeated and #1 ranked Memphis Tigers if UAB is any good this year.

Did I say Houston? Yes I did. Houston is currently 19-5 and sitting in 2nd place in Conference USA behind only Memphis, who happens to be the #1 ranked team in the country right now.

Louisville currently has a record of 20-6 and is ranked #18 in the nation. The Cardinals have also beaten Marquette, Georgetown, and West Virginia this season.

Mississippi State is sitting at 17-7 overall and currently leads the SEC West with an 8-2 conference record. The Wildcats only lost to the Bulldogs by 5 points in a game that was played at Starkville.

Florida is sitting at 19-7 overall and 6-5 in conference play. The Wildcats may have lost the game, but they did manage to take the Gators into overtime down in Gainesville.

Vanderbilt has a record of 22-4 and is currently ranked #20 in the nation. Yes, Kentucky's loss to Vanderbilt was embarrassing, but let's not forget that Kentucky beat the Commodores in their first meeting of the season. Surely that has to count for something.

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Kentucky has 6 games remaining on their regular season schedule. Those games are against Georgia (12-11) at home, Arkansas (17-7) at home, Mississippi (17-7) at home, Tennessee (23-2) at Knoxville, South Carolina (12-12) at Columbia, and Florida (19-7) at home.

I think it is very conceivable that the Wildcats could win 4 of their last 6 regular season games. In fact, I think it is imperative that Kentucky win 4 of those last 6 games. If the Wildcats fail to win 4 of their last 6 regular season games, I think their only chance of making the NCAA tournament would be to win the SEC tournament.

But if the Wildcats win 4 of their last 6 games, that would give Kentucky an overall record of 17-12 and a conference record of 11-5 entering the SEC tournament. I would think that if the Wildcats finish conference play with 11 wins they should draw a first round opponent in the SEC tournament that they have a fairly decent chance of beating. Even if Kentucky were to lose in the second round of the SEC tournament, they would still finish the season with an overall record of 18-13 and have 12 wins inside the SEC. Kentucky had some bad losses (San Diego and Gardner-Webb), but they also had some good wins (Tennessee and Vanderbilt). I think it would be awfully hard for the "Committee" to leave an 18 win Kentucky team out of the Big Dance. Especially if the Committee takes into consideration the number of injuries that Kentucky had to battle through this season.

There may be more riding on Kentucky's last 6 regular season games than you might think. Tennessee and Vanderbilt are probably the only 2 teams in the SEC that are already locks to make the NCAA tournament. I think it would be fair to assume that Mississippi State will probably also be Dancing. That would make only 3 teams from the SEC. History tells us that the SEC usually gets more than 3 teams into the tournament. So, the next logical SEC teams that the NCAA Selection Committee would be considering for inclusion in the tournament would probably be Kentucky (13-10, 7-3) , Arkansas (17-7, 6-4), Florida (19-7, 6-5), and Mississippi (17-7, 3-7). As I mentioned earlier, 3 of Kentucky's last 6 games are against Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi. All 3 of those games will be in Lexington, and I think it would benefit Kentucky greatly to win all 3 in order to separate themselves from those teams in the eyes of the Selection Committee.

Let's just hope the Wildcats take care of business the rest of the way and win the SEC tournament. But if they don't, let's hope they win at least 18 games and force the Committee to make a tough decision.

Go Big Blue!