If I Were Bob Castellini

Well Reds fans, here we are 78 games into the season and the Cincinnati Reds are in last place (again). I have to admit that I didn't see this coming. I honestly thought the Reds had done enough in the off season to be a legitimate contender in the NL Central. But, I'm now convinced that the Reds are now playing for next season.

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So, where did the Reds go wrong?
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I think the Reds first mistake was replacing Pete Mackanin with Dusty Baker. I'm not sure why Castellini decided to get rid of Mackanin, but Dusty has obviously been a failure. I predicted Dusty would be a failure in Cincinnati right after the Reds hired him. Unfortunately it looks like I was right. In my opinion Mackanin earned the right to manage the team this year. From what I've read, Pete might have lost his job because he had some personality conflicts with some people in the Reds front office. I guess that is reasonable, but if I was Bob Castellini I would have given Mackanin one more year. Pete did an amazing job last year with a very fragile pitching staff. And if you are gonna get rid of Mackanin, at least look for a guy who has a decent reputation of handling a pitching staff.

Which brings us to Castellini's second mistake. Getting rid of Wayne Krivsky as the General Manager in favor of Walt Jocketty doesn't make any sense to me. Wayne may have made some mistakes in his tenure with the Reds (hiring Dusty Baker), but he hit some real home runs as well. Let's not forget that Krivsky is the guy that brought in Brandon Phillips, Alex Gonzalez, Jerry Hairston JR, Scott Hatteberg, Jared Burton, Francisco Cordero, Josh Hamilton, Jeff Keppinger, and Edinson Volquez. Not too shabby if you ask me. If I were Bob Castellini, I would have given Wayne at least one more year. Four GMs in six years is never a good thing. I'm just hoping that Jocketty doesn't give away Cincinnati's farm system like he did in St. Louis.

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So, where do the Reds go from here?
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First off, I think it is time to start shopping Ken Griffey JR. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Griffey fan. But, you have to ask yourself, "What has Griffey done for the Reds lately?" Ken is definitely starting to slow down in the field and at the plate. Even in a best case scenario the guy only has a few semi productive seasons left on his engine. I say it is time to put Jay Bruce in right field on an everyday basis and see what we can get for Griffey. Ultimately, I just think there is a better way to spend the $8 million per season that Castellini is currently paying Junior.

Next, I would get rid of Corey Patterson. I never understood signing this guy in the first place. And at $3 million dollars? Corey started off kind of hot at the plate this season, but then he came back down to reality. I do not understand why Dusty keeps putting this guy in the lineup. I would take Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel over this guy in a heartbeat. Give me a break.

Next up, I'd start shopping Bronson Arroyo. From what I've been reading, there might be some interest out there. Bronson started out great in Cincinnati, but he has steadily declined since he has been here. The guy has good stuff and every once in awhile he turns in a fantastic outing, but those starts seem to be getting farther and farther apart. I'm not sure if it is mental or physical, but I'm done with the guy. Trade him and get what you can. Surely somebody will want a guy who can give you mega innings of work.

Next, I'd test the market for Alex Gonzalez. I wouldn't be upset if the Reds end up keeping Alex, but I think $4.6 million might be a little too much to pay for the guy. Especially when you think about how well his replacements have done this year while Alex was on the DL. Keppinger may not be a long term replacement for Gonzalez at SS, but Jeff has given the Reds more this year than Alex did all of last year. And Keppinger has done it at a fraction of the cost. Keppinger only makes around $400,000 per year.

Next, I'd do my best to re sign Adam Dunn. I know a lot of people think Dunn is overrated, but Adam is the only consistent big bat the Reds currently have on the roster. Say what you want to about him, but his last 4 years look like this: 46 HR 102 RBI, 40 HR 101 RBI, 40 HR 92 RBI, and 40 HR 106 RBI. I just don't think it will be too easy to replace those kinds of numbers. He may be a bit of a liability in the outfield, but the guy is still under 30 years old and has a lot of baseball left in him. I can live with his lumbering around in the field as long as he consistently gives me 40 HR a year at the plate.

Next, I would do everything in my power to keep Brandon Phillips on the team. This guy is one of the top two or three second baseman at the plate in baseball. And, I think he is the best fielding second baseman in all of baseball. Brandon is the type of player that you build a team around. So, start building. If Jockety gets rid of Phillips I swear I will switch my 30 odd years of fan allegiance over to the Cleveland Indians or Chicago Cubs. I'm not just saying that.

Along with Brandon Phillips, I would also try my best to keep Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Jerry Hairston JR. I know it is still early in the careers of Votto and Bruce, but I just have a good feeling about them. I think Bruce will develop into a consistent .300 and 25 HR guy if he gets to play everyday. Votto has been solid at first base and looks to probably be a .280, 25 HR guy. I think Hairston has been playing above his head this season, but I think he is the Reds best option in center field and in the lead-off position. Jerry has brought an energy with him to Cincinnati that nobody else seems to have. But, we all need to remember that Jerry has been around the Majors for 10 years and has never been much more than a backup. That's why I keep Hopper and Freel on the roster just in case.

I've gone back and forth on Edwin Encarnacion since he has been with the Reds. His inconsistency has absolutely driven me nuts. But, I still lean toward keeping him. He is decent in the field and he seems to have a knack for getting the big hit when the Reds need it. Plus, he is another of those low salary guys ($450,000 per year). I just don't see how the Reds could upgrade at 3rd base without spending a fortune.

Besides the pitching staff, I think the catcher position might be where the Reds need the most improvement. David Ross is a fine defensive catcher, but I don't think Ross will ever be more than a .250 hitter at the plate. Paul Bako has been in the Bigs for 10 years and has never been anything more than a backup. And although Javier Valentin has shown some improvement at the plate over the last few years, he may be the worst defensive catcher I have ever seen. Nope, I think it is time to start looking for a new catcher. Preferably a switch or right handed hitting guy. Cincinnati already has too many left handed bats in the lineup.

And now to the pitching staff.

I honestly think Wayne Krivsky did a fairly decent job putting together the bullpen over the last 2 years. He didn't have a lot of money to spend, but he still managed to make some decent upgrades. Wayne is pretty much responsible for every relief pitcher the Reds currently have on the roster. I could be wrong, but I think Weathers and Mercker are the only 2 guys currently in the bullpen that Wayne didn't bring to Cincy. I know the bullpen isn't fantastic from top to bottom, but its certainly better than what Krivsky inherited when he took over from Jim Bowden. I feel pretty good about Cordero, Weathers, Burton, and Bray.

I'm not sure what to think about the Reds starting rotation. The only guys I feel pretty good about are Harang and Volquez. And I think it is still too early to determine if this season has just been some kind of an anomaly for Volquez, or if this is what we can expect to see from him next season as well. This is Edinson's 4th year in the Bigs and he has never put up numbers anywhere close to what he is doing for the Reds this season. Harang's numbers have slipped this year, but he is still a horse. He is giving the Reds his best effort game in and game out, but for some reason the Reds simply can't score any runs when Aaron is on the mound.

I think Harang, Volquez, and Cueto will probably be in the rotation next season. If the Reds don't come to their senses and get rid of Arroyo, he too will probably make the rotation. So then the question becomes, "Will the Reds make a trade or add a free agent pitcher to the roster?" If they get rid of Griffey and/or Arroyo they should have some money available to pay a starting pitcher. But will they pull the trigger if they get the chance? If Jocketty does pull the trigger, will he give away the Reds future like he did in St. Louis?

If they don't make any changes, they should still have Matt Belisle, Josh Fogg, Bobby Livingston, Homer Bailey, and Daryl Thompson around to compete for any remaining spots in the rotation next season.

Maybe the Reds will just stay put and enter next season with basically the same roster they have now. Let's face it, I thought this roster was good enough to compete this year. If it hadn't been for Dusty Baker, the Reds might be in first place right now. You never know. Which brings me back to what I would do if I was Bob Castellini.

I would start by firing Dusty Baker. Now!