My Take On The Colts, 2011

I basically shut down this blog down about two years ago. It wasn't that I no longer had any interest in continuing the blog, it was simply a matter of time management for me. But, with the Colts' 0-6 start this season I suddenly find myself thinking way too much about what I would do if I was Bill Polian or Jim Irsay. In fact, I have been thinking about it so much that I just couldn't stay away from this blog any longer. So, here it goes.

First off, all of you Colts fans out there need to take a deep breath. It is not the end of the world. And, stop blaming Bill Polian for the 0-6 start. Bill has done exactly what he was brought in to do. He built a team around Peyton Manning and a few other highly paid players (Wayne, Mathis, Freeney, Diem, Bethea, Clark, Saturday). Bill's hands are tied with the salary cap just like every other NFL GM out there. If you want to keep several high priced players, you suffer the consequences when it comes to the rest of your roster. I think Bill has done a remarkable job playing the hand he has been dealt, with a few exceptions which I will discuss below. I am also getting a little tired of hearing about all the failed drafts the Colts have had recently. Bill Polian's drafts have not been that bad. True, he has missed on a few high draft picks in recent years (Jerry Hughes, Donald Brown, Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh), but he has made some exceptional picks in those recent drafts as well (Pat Angerer, Kavell Connor, Anthony Castonzo, Delone Carter, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Clint Session, Antoine Bethea, Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis).

Where I believe the Colts management have made a their mistakes over the last few years is when it came to deciding which players to keep and which to let go. I don't claim to have any inside knowledge on player personalities or locker room compatibility, and I am basing my opinion totally on the talent and effort I see on the field. Obviously, a player's personality and ability to get along with his teammates has to play an important part of any personnel decisions the Colts or any other team has to make. I feel that Bill Polian has done enough over the years to earn my trust and respect when it comes to making personnel decisions. Bill knows a lot more more about salary caps and what goes on in the Colts locker room than I will ever know. But, that will not stop me from playing Monday morning GM and pointing out a few moves that I think he should not have made. Here goes.

I love Gary Brackett as a person, but I think he falls woefully short as a starting middle linebacker in the NFL. And his $4.4 million hit on the Colts 2011 salary cap seems more than a little excessive to me. I guarantee you if Gary were allowed to hit the free agent market he wouldn't get anywhere near that amount from any other team out there. Gary has put up some impressive tackling numbers over the years, but too many of his tackles have been 5 yards down field. To me, a good middle linebacker needs to make his reads quickly and attack the line of scrimmage as soon as he sees the hole develop. Gary tends to wait until he sees the running back emerge from the hole and too often ends up getting run over in the process by the running back or a blocking lineman. I used to think Gary was just playing the way the coaches wanted him to play, but I have now seen too many other Colts linebackers step into Gary's position and do a much better job attacking the play. After seeing Pat Angerer play middle linebacker this season, there is no way I would ever put Gary back into the starting lineup as the middle linebacker. If I was Bill Polian, I would have made an effort to keep Clint Session instead of Gary Brackett. But, Bill Polian has made it a point over the years to let promising young linebackers move on in free agency while he clings to the underachieving Brackett. Bill has definitely been very consistent when it comes to linebackers and I think this approach has been detrimental to the Colts defense over the years. Cato June, David Thornton, Clint Session, Marcus Washington, and Mike Peterson are the most notable linebackers that Bill Polian has let go to free agency in recent years.

I honestly haven't thought too highly of Ryan Diem since he has been in Indianapolis. I just don't see whatever it is the Colts coaching staff sees in the guy. But, the Colts have kept him year in and year out while they continue to let other lineman go (Jake Scott, Ryan Lilja, Charlie Johnson). Ryan Diem has killed many Colts drives over the years with his pathetic attempts at pass blocking and his incessant knack for penalties on important downs. If I was an opposing Defensive Coordinator I would focus my defensive attack on Ryan Diem every time I played the Colts. It seems like 75% of the pressure on Peyton Manning every season comes from the players that line up across from Diem. I have to give Jim Caldwell a little credit this season for moving Diem from right tackle to the right guard position. That is a move that should have been made years ago. Moving Diem inside greatly limits his ability to totally whiff on an outside speed rush by players like Mario Williams. I haven't seen enough of Diem at right guard yet to form an opinion as to his talent at that position, but I do think the Colts would have been wiser to have kept Jake Scott at right guard and let Ryan Diem go years ago. Jake Scott still starts for the Titans and currently hits Tennessee's salary cap for about $500,000 less than what Diem is costing the Colts. I personally would have kept Charlie Johnson instead of Ryan Diem this last off season. Charlie is now the starting left tackle for Minnesota and is currently costing the Vikings a little over $4 million less against the cap than what Diem is costing the Colts. Ryan Lilja starts for the Chiefs and currently hits Kansas City's cap for less than half of what Diem is costing the Colts. Only time will tell if Diem is worth his salary at right guard. I personally do not think he is worth it and Bill Polian would have been smarter to have kept Lilja, Scott or Johnson. I am also still upset that Bill Polian picked Jerry Hughes at #28 in the 2010 draft instead of Rodger Saffold (OT). How good would the offensive line look right now with Saffold and Castonzo as the bookends?

Anthony Gonzalez was brilliant at Ohio State. I was ecstatic when the Colts drafted the guy. I have emphatically changed my opinion on Gonzalez since he has been a Colt. His ability to drop important catches when he is wide open is only surpassed by Pierre Garcon. But, Pierre's speed and knack for making the incredible catches makes Pierre worth the occasional drops in my opinion. Gonzalez is a different story. I am tired of seeing Gonzalez run his routes two yards short of the first down marker, tired of seeing him drop the third down passes, and tired of seeing him stand on the sidelines in street clothes. In my opinion, Gonzalez is a player that must be let go after this season. The Colts are not getting enough of a return on his $1.76 million hit against the salary cap. Especially when you consider that Garcon only costs the Colts $577,000 against the cap, and Collie only costs the Colts $589,000 against the cap. Hell, Blair White only costs the Colts $405,000 against the cap and I would much rather see White on the field on third down than Anthony Gonzalez.

I am not even going to discuss the Kerry Collins signing for $4 million. I don't blame the Colts for freaking out about the prospect of Curtis Painter having to lead the team this season. But, in hindsight, it doesn't look like such an intelligent decision now. And, I know a lot of people are done with Donald Brown but the guy really doesn't cost the Colts that much against the cap ($1.1 million). I think I would strongly consider keeping Brown unless Carter continues to impress me the way he has so far. Addai is a no brainer for me. I keep Addai as long as I can. Addai may not always be the best runner, but he is fantastic as a receiver and a blocker.

No, I would not trade Mathis or Wayne. They are both at the point in their careers where the Colts simply wouldn't get enough in return for either one of them. Those guys are much too valuable on the field to even consider trading them at this point. Unless, of course, there is no chance that Peyton Manning will ever be able to play at a high level again. If Peyton is unable to fully recover from his injury, then it would make sense to start the rebuilding process now. But, I do not believe that Peyton's career is over just yet. It would not surprise me if Peyton never plays at the level again that we have been accustomed to seeing from him, but even at 90% the guy is still better than almost every other QB out there. But, what if Peyton is unable to return and is ultimately forced to retire? I hate "what ifs," but I already know what I would do if that turns out to be the case. And, it is probably not what you think.

Let's face it, if Peyton doesn't return this season there is a very good chance the Colts will be looking at one of the top three draft picks. In my opinion, they have to take Andrew Luck if he is available for them. But, if they do take Luck they are going to have to make some very difficult salary cap decisions. That would mean they may end up losing Reggie Wayne and/or Robert Mathis. And, there is no guarantee that Luck wouldn't pull some kind of John Elway move and refuse to come to Indy. Especially with the possibility of maybe starting as a rookie in someplace like Miami. But, the Colts have to try to get Luck if they can. The Colts are in uncharted territory right now with Peyton's health, and even if Peyton comes back full strength he probably only has 4 or 5 good years left. Bring Luck in and see what he can do. If he is anywhere close to being as good as everybody thinks he is going to be then the Colts could always sit him for a couple of years and then do the unthinkable by seeing what kind of interest other teams might have in trading for Peyton. Trading Manning would be extremely unpopular in Indianapolis, but ultimately the NFL is a business. And, it doesn't make a lot of business sense to sacrifice 10 years of financial success for 4 years of financial success.

If Luck is not available for the Colts in next year's draft, then I think the Colts still need to start thinking about their long term future anyway. Let's face it, if this year has proven anything it has proven the Indy model doesn't work if Peyton isn't playing. I think it is high time the Colts seriously look at scrapping the "Tampa 2" defense and start spending some more money on the defense. Finding some DB's that are capable of playing man coverage would be a good place to start. Whether that means using some high draft picks to select some DB's or trading some high draft picks to get some DB's doesn't matter to me. The Colts defense will be a hell of a lot less predictable if they can occasionally blitz with the confidence that their DB's won't get beat deep every time they play man coverage. I don't blame Larry Coyer for the weak Colts pass defense this season. I firmly believe Coyer is doing the best he can with what he has to work with. Just like any other defense out there, the Tampa 2 is only as good as the players on the field. For the record, I don't like the Tampa 2. I would much rather the Colts be playing a 3-4, but they just don't have the personnel to pull it off.

The biggest change I would make is with the head coach. I like Jim Caldwell as a person, but the guy simply doesn't impress me as a head coach. I could be totally wrong here and I am man enough to admit it. But, I just don't think Caldwell is the guy to lead the Colts into the future. I am not just now jumping on that bandwagon after the 0-6 start, either. I didn't want him to get the job in the first place. And, I haven't seen anything yet to change my mind. If I was Bill Polian I would already be weighing my options and seeing what kind of interest might be out there from other coaches. I personally would like to see the Colts bring in more of a defensive minded coach, especially if he had experience with something other than a Cover 2. The first guy I would call would be Jeff Fisher. I know Fisher's resume isn't exactly fantastic, but the guy did have some success against the Peyton Manning led Colts over the years. Fisher was a head coach for a long time with the same team, which means that he is capable of playing well with others. Even if he is often viewed as being difficult to get along with. And, I don't care about his overall head coaching record. If past coaching records were that important to the Colts they never would have hired Jim Caldwell in the first place. Caldwell's record at Wake Forest wasn't just bad, it was downright embarrassing. Caldwell's conference records for 1993 to 2000 when he was at Wake Forest were 1-7, 1-7, 0-8, 1-7, 3-5, 2-6, 3-5, 1-7. I know it is probably very difficult to be successful at Wake Forest, but Jim Grobe has done a decent job there since he replaced Jim Caldwell. Look it up for yourself if you want.

Of all the things I mentioned above, getting rid of Jim Caldwell would be my first move. But, only if there is someone better out there. Right now there is Jeff Fisher and Bill Cowher. I consider both guys to be better options than Caldwell. And, there may be an up and comer out there somewhere that hasn't been discovered yet. Who knows? But, sitting back and watching the Colts get out coached every week is starting to get old really fast. If the Colts wait until after the season is over to make a coaching move it may be too late to get the guy they really want. I think it is time to shit or get off the pot. Get the guy you want NOW before somebody else gets him. I am pretty sure the Dolphins will be looking for a new coach in the very near future. Jeff Fisher will not be unemployed for long.

After the season I would part ways with Brackett, Gonzalez, Collins, Hughes and Diem. If Carter works out as well as I think he might, I would also seriously consider letting Donald Brown go. And if I could find some man cover capable DB's I would seriously think about starting completely over with my defensive backfield. Bethea and Bullit are the only two guys that I think have proven their ability in the defensive backfield for the Colts. And, Bullit's ability to stay healthy is starting to make me nervous. It is also high time the Colts seriously consider trying to keep the good linebackers. Pat Angerer looks like a good linebacker to me. Invest some money in Angerer and keep him for awhile. Reggie Wayne may be too expensive to keep, but his numbers have dropped significantly this season without Manning and that might actually help the Colts keep Reggie in the long run. I am sure there are a lot of other teams out there right now wondering if guys like Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are really as good as Peyton Manning has made them look over the years.

I could go on forever with this topic, but I am tired of typing.