NFL Playoff Preview

I went 11-5 on my predictions for Week 17. That puts me at 157-99 on the season. I had been missing a game in my totals for almost the whole season. I finally realized today that I was missing the Houston/Baltimore game that had been originally scheduled for Week 2 but was then rescheduled to November 9th because of Hurricane Ike.


WILD-CARD WEEKEND
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Saturday, January 3rd (4:30 PM)

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) vs Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

A strong running game and a stout defense is a must when it comes time for the playoffs. Neither the Falcons or the Cardinals have impressed me with their defenses this year, but the Falcons did suit up the number 2 ranked rushing offense in the NFL this season. Whereas, the Cardinals ranked dead last in the NFL on the ground.

Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense have put up some impressive statistics through the air, but the Cards have struggled offensively when the opposing defense has been able to pressure Warner. I think Atlanta's John Abraham (16.5 sacks) will probably be wearing Kurt Warner's uniform by halftime. This doesn't bode well for Arizona.

I look for Warner to have a couple of turnovers and for Michael Turner to have somewhere around 150 yards rushing.

My Prediction: Atlanta 24 Arizona 17
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Saturday, January 3rd (8:00 PM)

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) vs San Diego Chargers (8-8)

This game is a toss-up as far as I am concerned. Both teams have a lot of talent and speed on both sides of the ball. But, both teams have had the tendency in the past to look unprepared and totally flat when they reach the playoffs. In my opinion, this is because neither team has had a coaching staff that excelled at scouting or game planning for their opponents. Instead, both teams relied heavily on their established systems and the individual talent on their respective rosters.

The last 3 meetings between these 2 teams have been decided by a total of 9 points, and I don't think this game will be any different. I think the keys to this game will be turnovers and quarterback play. Last year, Peyton Manning had 9 interceptions in his 2 games against the Chargers (The Colts lost both games).

Offensively, the Chargers need to keep their 3rd downs manageable. The last thing Phillip Rivers wants is to have Freeney and Mathis rushing full speed on 3rd and long. I look for the Chargers to run the ball a lot on first down, throw short routes underneath Indy's zone coverage, and take some deep shots off of play action. On defense, the Chargers will probably look to throw a lot of disguised blitzes against Indy's shaky offensive line.

I look for the Colts to do what they always do. On offense, Peyton will try to read the Charger defense at the line of scrimmage and decide between pass or run. Hopefully, the Colts will realize that attempting to run the stretch play against a fast Charger defense isn't going to work. The Colts need to pound the ball between the tackles on quick hitting dive plays and avoid any delayed running plays. The Chargers are probably going to blitz a lot, so I would expect to see some man to man on Indy's wide outs. Indy should be able to take advantage of the man to man by running a lot of crossing routes underneath. On defense, the Colts will sit back in their soft zone coverages and allow the Chargers to move the ball at will up and down the field.

In the end, I'm going with the Chargers. I just think that Ron Riviera will have something special up his sleeve that will totally confuse the Indianapolis coaching staff. I think San Diego will jump out to an early lead and hang on for the victory.

My Prediction: San Diego 31 Indianapolis 21
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Sunday January 4th (1:00 PM)

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (11-5)

These two teams met in Week 7 with the Ravens winning 27-13. But, statistically the game was pretty even.

The guy to watch in this game is going to be Joe Flacco. Joe turned in a 17-23 for 232 yards with 1 touchdown and zero interceptions performance in Week 7. Can he do it again?

The other aspect of this game that interests me is the Miami offense versus the Raven defense. These two teams rank 1st (Miami) and 3rd (Baltimore) in the AFC only this season in turnover differential. Miami finished first in this category because their offense turned the ball over 13 times all season. Baltimore finished third in this category because their defense created 34 takeaways this season. Something has to give.

I expect this game to go pretty much like it did in Week 7. I think Joe Flacco will have a decent game and the Raven defense will make the Dolphin offense settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

My Prediction: Baltimore 21 Miami 9
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Sunday January 4th (4:30 PM)

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

Did you know the Philadelphia Eagles have the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL? That same defense ranks 4th against the rush and 3rd against the pass.

Did you know the Minnesota Viking defense ranks 6th in the NFL? The Viking defense ranks 1st against the rush, but only 18th against the pass. That 18th ranked pass defense is a major "uh-oh" for the Vikes.

I think the defenses on both sides are going to control their opponent's running games. Yeah, Peterson will probably be somewhere around 100 yards rushing for the game. But, I just don't think Tarvaris Jackson will play well enough at QB to put more than 14 points on the board for the Vikes.

I look for Eagles to dink and dunk the Viking defense up and down the field. Philly will run the ball just enough to keep their offense balanced, but the majority of the Eagles' yards will come through the air. There will be lots of short passes with the occasional deep ball to keep everybody honest.

Look out for the Eagles. Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have enormous chips on their shoulders right now.

My Prediction: Philadelphia 28 Minnesota 10