Monday, December 29, 2008

NFL Playoff Preview

I went 11-5 on my predictions for Week 17. That puts me at 157-99 on the season. I had been missing a game in my totals for almost the whole season. I finally realized today that I was missing the Houston/Baltimore game that had been originally scheduled for Week 2 but was then rescheduled to November 9th because of Hurricane Ike.


WILD-CARD WEEKEND
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Saturday, January 3rd (4:30 PM)

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) vs Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

A strong running game and a stout defense is a must when it comes time for the playoffs. Neither the Falcons or the Cardinals have impressed me with their defenses this year, but the Falcons did suit up the number 2 ranked rushing offense in the NFL this season. Whereas, the Cardinals ranked dead last in the NFL on the ground.

Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense have put up some impressive statistics through the air, but the Cards have struggled offensively when the opposing defense has been able to pressure Warner. I think Atlanta's John Abraham (16.5 sacks) will probably be wearing Kurt Warner's uniform by halftime. This doesn't bode well for Arizona.

I look for Warner to have a couple of turnovers and for Michael Turner to have somewhere around 150 yards rushing.

My Prediction: Atlanta 24 Arizona 17
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Saturday, January 3rd (8:00 PM)

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) vs San Diego Chargers (8-8)

This game is a toss-up as far as I am concerned. Both teams have a lot of talent and speed on both sides of the ball. But, both teams have had the tendency in the past to look unprepared and totally flat when they reach the playoffs. In my opinion, this is because neither team has had a coaching staff that excelled at scouting or game planning for their opponents. Instead, both teams relied heavily on their established systems and the individual talent on their respective rosters.

The last 3 meetings between these 2 teams have been decided by a total of 9 points, and I don't think this game will be any different. I think the keys to this game will be turnovers and quarterback play. Last year, Peyton Manning had 9 interceptions in his 2 games against the Chargers (The Colts lost both games).

Offensively, the Chargers need to keep their 3rd downs manageable. The last thing Phillip Rivers wants is to have Freeney and Mathis rushing full speed on 3rd and long. I look for the Chargers to run the ball a lot on first down, throw short routes underneath Indy's zone coverage, and take some deep shots off of play action. On defense, the Chargers will probably look to throw a lot of disguised blitzes against Indy's shaky offensive line.

I look for the Colts to do what they always do. On offense, Peyton will try to read the Charger defense at the line of scrimmage and decide between pass or run. Hopefully, the Colts will realize that attempting to run the stretch play against a fast Charger defense isn't going to work. The Colts need to pound the ball between the tackles on quick hitting dive plays and avoid any delayed running plays. The Chargers are probably going to blitz a lot, so I would expect to see some man to man on Indy's wide outs. Indy should be able to take advantage of the man to man by running a lot of crossing routes underneath. On defense, the Colts will sit back in their soft zone coverages and allow the Chargers to move the ball at will up and down the field.

In the end, I'm going with the Chargers. I just think that Ron Riviera will have something special up his sleeve that will totally confuse the Indianapolis coaching staff. I think San Diego will jump out to an early lead and hang on for the victory.

My Prediction: San Diego 31 Indianapolis 21
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Sunday January 4th (1:00 PM)

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (11-5)

These two teams met in Week 7 with the Ravens winning 27-13. But, statistically the game was pretty even.

The guy to watch in this game is going to be Joe Flacco. Joe turned in a 17-23 for 232 yards with 1 touchdown and zero interceptions performance in Week 7. Can he do it again?

The other aspect of this game that interests me is the Miami offense versus the Raven defense. These two teams rank 1st (Miami) and 3rd (Baltimore) in the AFC only
this season in turnover differential. Miami finished first in this category because their offense turned the ball over 13 times all season. Baltimore finished third in this category because their defense created 34 takeaways this season. Something has to give.

I expect this game to go pretty much like it did in Week 7. I think Joe Flacco will have a decent game and the Raven defense will make the Dolphin offense settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

My Prediction: Baltimore 21 Miami 9
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Sunday January 4th (4:30 PM)

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

Did you know the Philadelphia Eagles have the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL? That same defense ranks 4th against the rush and 3rd against the pass.

Did you know the Minnesota Viking defense ranks 6th in the NFL? The Viking defense ranks 1st against the rush, but only 18th against the pass. That 18th ranked pass defense is a major "uh-oh" for the Vikes.

I think the defenses on both sides are going to control their opponent's running games. Yeah, Peterson will probably be somewhere around 100 yards rushing for the game. But, I just don't think Tarvaris Jackson will play well enough at QB to put more than 14 points on the board for the Vikes.

I look for Eagles to dink and dunk the Viking defense up and down the field. Philly will run the ball just enough to keep their offense balanced, but the majority of the Eagles' yards will come through the air. There will be lots of short passes with the occasional deep ball to keep everybody honest.

Look out for the Eagles. Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have enormous chips on their shoulders right now.

My Prediction: Philadelphia 28 Minnesota 10


















Sunday, December 28, 2008

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I stumbled again last week with a 9-7 record. That puts me at 145-94 on the season. That's not too bad, I guess.

The picks this week are going to be a little tougher because there are quite a few teams that have no reason to play hard.

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1) St. Louis vs. Atlanta: No contest. Winner = Atlanta

2) New England vs. Buffalo: Windy!! The Pats will win this one easily. Winner = New England

3) Kansas City vs. Cincinnati: There won't be too many people watching this one. Winner = Cincinnati

4) Detroit vs. Green Bay: 0-16. Ouch!! Winner = Green Bay

5) Tennessee vs. Indianapolis: History tells us that Tony Dungy never plays his starters too long in meaningless games at the end of the season. History also tells us the Colts do not perform well in the playoffs after Coach Dungy rests his starters at the end of the regular season. History will repeat. Winner = Tennessee

6) NY Giants vs. Minnesota: The Giants are going to rest some starters today, but Tarvaris Jackson is still listed as the starter for the Vikings. Winner = NY Giants

7) Carolina vs. New Orleans: The Panthers are capable of being a dominant football team, but they just can't seem to get it all together. Winner = New Orleans

8) Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh: Seriously, what is the point of even playing this game? Winner = Pittsburgh

9) Oakland vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs should win this one. Winner = Tampa Bay

10) Chicago vs. Houston: The Bears are a decent football team, but the Texans play good football at home. Winner = Houston

11) Jacksonville vs. Baltimore: The Ravens will use this game as a momentum builder heading into the playoffs. Winner = Baltimore

12) Washington vs. San Francisco: The Redskins just aren't a very good football team right now. Winner = San Francisco

13) Miami vs. NY Jets: The Jets have lost their Mojo and Favre is playing hurt. Chad has something to prove and I think he will have a nice game. Winner = Miami

14) Dallas vs. Philadelphia: I look for the Eagles to play hard, but I just don't think they have enough to beat Dallas right now. But, the Cowboy offense is vulnerable and Jim Johnson is a defensive genius. Winner = Dallas

15) Seattle vs. Arizona: I'm not going to be surprised if the Seahawks win this one, but the Cards are the better team. Winner = Arizona

16) Denver vs. San Diego: Redemption. Winner = San Diego

Thursday, December 18, 2008

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Hey, Hey, Hey!!! I went 10-6 last week which isn't too bad. I could have gone 12-4 if I had actually trusted my instincts and picked the Texans and the Bengals. I'm 136 -87 on the season.

We've got some big games this week, so let's get down to the predictions.

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1) Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: The Jags have had a bad year and the Colts are on a roll and can clinch a playoff spot with a victory. Indy should win this one, but I guarantee you the Jags will game plan and show a new wrinkle to the Colts. Del Rio will win the coaching battle (as usual), but the Colts will win the game based on superior athletic talent. Winner = Indianapolis

2) Baltimore vs. Dallas:
I have a feeling this is going to be a low scoring ugly game. Tony Romo surprised me and came up big last week. Can he do it again? Nope. Winner = Baltimore

3) Cincinnati vs. Cleveland:
Yawn!! Winner = Cincinnati

4) San Francisco vs. St. Louis:
The 49ers have shown drastic improvement since Singletary took over and I expect more of the same this week. Winner = San Francisco

5) New Orleans vs. Detroit: I will be surprised if the Saints don't win this one. Winner = New Orleans

6) Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee:
The Big Bully is going to march into Nashville, punch the "poser" right in the face, and then walk away with the "poser's" lunch money and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Winner = Pittsburgh

7) Miami vs. Kansas City:
The Chiefs aren't as bad a football team as their record indicates, and the Dolphins aren't as good as their record indicates. The Dolphins have a better coach, though. Winner = Miami

8) Arizona vs. New England:
The Cards mailed it in last week. Their season is officially over. They probably won't win another game (playoffs included). Winner = New England

9) San Diego vs. Tampa Bay:
This is a tough one to call. The Bucs haven't lost a game at home all season. Winner = Tampa Bay

10) Houston vs. Oakland:
Houston is playing for respect. Oakland is playing for a draft pick. Winner = Houston

11) Buffalo vs. Denver:
I know Trent Edwards is coming back this week, but the Bills just look like a team that is already planning their winter vacations. Winner = Denver

12) NY Jets vs. Seattle:
This could be a tough game for the Jets. But, I have to believe they will find a way to pull this one out just like they did last week. Winner = NY Jets

13) Atlanta vs. Minnesota:
The Vikings have the #1 rated defense against the run in the NFL, and they also have Adrian Peterson which should give the Vikes a nice advantage. But, I just read that Tarvaris Jackson is going to start the game at QB for Minnesota so any advantage the Vikes have elsewhere on the field could very easily be offset by Tarvaris' pathetic quarterback play. I'm going to give TJ the benefit of the doubt this week, though. Winner = Minnesota

14) Philadelphia vs. Washington:
If the Eagles keep their offensive play calling balanced, they should win this game. But, if Andy starts calling all pass plays this could be a long day for Donovan. Winner = Philadelphia

15) Carolina vs. NY Giants:
I'm just not convinced the Panthers are that good. Sure, they win at home. But, they are only 3-3 on the road this year. Winner = NY Giants

16) Green Bay vs. Chicago:
I've given up on the Packers. Winner = Chicago

Thursday, December 11, 2008

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I did a little better last week with a record of 11-5. That makes me 126- 81 on the season.

I don't feel too bad about the 11-5 mark last week. I figure just about everybody missed the Philly/NY Giants game and the NY Jets/San Fran game. I also missed the Houston/Green Bay game, which I probably would have gotten correct if I'd known Matt Schaub was going to play for the Texans. The other two games I missed were the two NFC SOUTH match-ups. I can't explain it, but I just completely suck at predicting what the NFC SOUTH teams are going to do from week to week.

The only part about last week's predictions that I am actually embarrassed about was the fact that I didn't research the Miami/Buffalo game enough to know the game was being played indoors up in Toronto. Looking back on it now, I do remember hearing the ESPN guys talking about it. I still picked the game correctly, but for the wrong reasons.

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1) New Orleans vs. Chicago: This game has already started and I know Chicago is up 21-7 at the half. But, I have to be honest and admit that I picked New Orleans to win this game. So, I'm sticking with my original pick and hoping for a dramatic comeback. Winner = New Orleans

2) Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta: Damn, another one of those dreaded NFC SOUTH match-ups. I'm sure I will probably miss this one because I always screw the NFC SOUTH games up. Winner = Atlanta

3) Washington vs. Cincinnati: You'd have to be an idiot to pick the Bungles in this one, so I'm not going to do it. But, don't be surprised if Cincy makes a game of this. The Bungles may actually have a few match-up advantages. Winner = Washington

4) Detroit vs. Indianapolis: The Colts looked a lot better last week and this week should be no different. Winner = Indianapolis

5) San Diego vs. Kansas City: This was a close one the first time these two teams met this season. I think the Chargers will win, but its too little too late for San Diego. Winner = San Diego

6) Seattle vs. St. Louis: I hate to even pick this game. Winner = Seattle

7) San Francisco vs. Miami: The 49ers definitely look better under Singletary, but the Fins should take this one at home. Winner = Miami

8) Buffalo vs. NY Jets: I thought the Bills were pretty good, and then they were not. I thought the Jets were pretty good, and then they were not. I'm taking the home team. Winner = NY Jets

9) Tennessee vs. Houston: I've got to tell you that I think this game could be difficult for the Titans. The Texans aren't as bad as everybody seems to think, and the Titans may get caught looking ahead to their next game against the Steelers. I'm picking the Titans, but I wouldn't be surprised if Houston pulled the upset. Winner = Tennessee

10) Green Bay vs. Jacksonville: This is a difficult game to pick. Both teams have massively underachieved this season. My gut tells me to pick the Packers, though. Winner = Green Bay

11) Minnesota vs. Arizona: Frerotte is out and I just have no confidence in Tarvaris Jackson. Winner = Arizona

12) Denver vs. Carolina: I must admit that I have no idea what Carolina is going to do from week to week. They seem to play better at home, though. Winner = Carolina

13) Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore: This is the game of the week. I expect to see a defensive struggle with a few turnovers and some big time collisions. This one is a toss up, but I'm going with the team that has been there before. Winner = Pittsburgh

14) New England vs. Oakland: Oakland is too dysfunctional to beat a well coached team like the Patriots. Winner = New England

15) NY Giants vs. Dallas: This one should be interesting. The Giants are coming off an embarrassing loss to Philly. The Cowboys have their backs against the wall and T.O. is starting to unravel (again). In the end, I think it will come down to the fact that the Giants are a good road team and Tony Romo seems to fall apart in big games. Winner = NY Giants

16) Cleveland vs. Philadelphia: The bad news is that Cleveland is down to their third string quarterback. The good news is that Dorsey didn't look any worse than Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn. But, that isn't saying much. Winner = Philadelphia

Thursday, December 4, 2008

NFL Week 14 Predictions

I turned in another less than impressive 9-7 record last week. Its a good thing I'm not actually betting any money on these predictions. If you're keeping track, that now puts me at 115-76 on the season.

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1) Oakland vs. San Diego: The Chargers haven't been impressive this year, but this game probably won't even be close. Winner = San Diego

2) Jacksonville vs. Chicago:
If this game was in Jacksonville I might give the Jags a chance. But, its being played in Chicago. Winner = Chicago

3) Minnesota vs. Detroit:
The Lions will remain winless. Winner = Minnesota

4) Houston vs. Green Bay:
The Packers have been a huge disappointment this year and the Texans have played remarkably well without Matt Schaub. I'm still taking the Pack at home. Winner = Green Bay

5) Cleveland vs. Tennessee:
Wouldn't it be funny if Ken Dorsey turned in the game of his life and the Browns actually beat the mighty Titans? It would be, but it ain't gonna happen. Winner = Tennessee

6) Cincinnati vs. Indianapolis:
Last week the Colts continued their their streak of playing down to their opponents level. I figure that trend will probably continue again this week and the Colts will undoubtedly struggle against the pathetic Bungles. Winner = Indianapolis

7) Atlanta vs. New Orleans:
This has the potential to be a very interesting game. Both offenses are pretty good, and both defenses are below average. I'm going out on a limb and taking the Falcons because of their strong running game. Winner = Atlanta

8) Philadelphia vs. NY Giants:
I really like Donovan McNabb, but I think he is going to have a tough time against that Giants defense. Winner = NY Giants

9) Kansas City vs. Denver:
Unless Hell freezes over between now and Sunday I just don't see how the Chiefs could possibly win this game. Winner = Denver

10) Miami vs. Buffalo:
One would think that a warm weather team like Miami would have a difficult time playing a game in Buffalo in December. But, Chad Pennington is built for this kind of weather. Winner = Miami

11) NY Jets vs. San Francisco:
I am really starting to question just how good the Jets really are. But, I know they are better than the 49ers. Winner = NY Jets

12) New England vs. Seattle:
This one probably won't even be close. Winner = New England

13) St Louis vs. Arizona:
The Rams rank 28th in total offense and 29th in total defense. Winner = Arizona

14) Dallas vs. Pittsburgh:
This is the game of the week. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Steeler defense is on a roll. Winner = Pittsburgh

15) Washington vs. Baltimore:
I've been underestimating the Ravens and overestimating the Redskins all season. I've decided that only one of these teams will make the playoffs and it isn't Washington. Winner = Baltimore

16) Tampa Bay vs. Carolina:
It wasn't even a contest when these two teams met back in October and I think Sunday will be more of the same. Winner = Tampa Bay

Monday, December 1, 2008

We Play Green

I'm not usually one to get up on my soap box and rave about anything. But, I came across a story the other day about Cincinnati Reds outfielder Chris Dickerson and his effort to raise awareness about waste reduction and recycling.

Those of you who know me in real life know that I care deeply about our planet and the environment that we all live in. I'm not one of those "the sky is falling" environmentalists like Al Gore. But, I do believe we need to take care of the planet that we all call home. I'll stop there on my personal beliefs and let you read the story about Chris Dickerson for yourselves. You can read it here.

Then, after you've read the story, you can check out the We Play Green web site here. The web site isn't up yet, but it is scheduled to be online sometime this week.

Bravo, Chris!