NFL Week 4 Predictions

I went 11-5 last week and improved to 31 -17 on the season. I'd be doing pretty good right now if I hadn't totally flopped on my Week 2 predictions.

On to Week 4.

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Detroit at Chicago: I'm still not on the Bears bandwagon, but there hasn't been a bandwagon in Detroit in several years. The Lions played well last week, but can they do it two weeks in a row? I don't think so. Winner = Chicago

Cincinnati at Cleveland: If you think you have two good quarterbacks on your roster, that probably means you don't have any. Winner = Cincinnati

Seattle at Indianapolis: The Colts defense is banged up, but they still have Peyton Manning. Winner = Indianapolis

NY Giants at Kansas City: This is going to be ugly if you are a Chiefs fan. Winner = NY Giants

Baltimore at New England: Its now time to find out if Baltimore is any good. Victories over Cleveland, Kansas City, and a notoriously slow starting Charger team hasn't proven anything to me yet. I'm still buying, though. Winner = Baltimore

Tampa Bay at Washington: The award for this week's ugliest game goes to................. I think I would rather watch "The View" than be forced to watch this one. Winner = Washington

Tennessee at Jacksonville: I just can't see the Titans dropping this one, even though it is at Jacksonville. One more loss this early and Tennessee is in serious trouble. Jeff Fisher will get them back on course. Winner = Tennessee

Oakland at Houston: The Texans have Matt Schaub, the Raiders have Jamarcus Russell. Nuff said. Winner = Houston

NY Jets at New Orleans: I'm pretty excited about this game. Both of these teams come in looking very impressive. To me, this game is too close to call. I'm going with the home team. Winner = New Orleans

Buffalo at Miami: I just don't think the Dolphins have much chance without Pennington. Winner = Buffalo

Saint Louis at San Francisco: Its only going to get worse for the Rams. The 49ers should make this one look easy. Winner = San Francisco

Dallas at Denver: Bronco fans can say goodbye to their undefeated record. Denver's next five opponents are Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. This will be just the start of a very long month and a half for Denver. Winner = Dallas

San Diego at Pittsburgh: The Steelers need this game a lot more than San Diego does, and it is in the Steel City. Winner = Pittsburgh

Green Bay at Minnesota: We've all been waiting on this one. The Vikes should win, unless Favre tries to do too much. I think the coaching staff will keep #4 in check and the Viking defense and running game will pull this one out. Winner = Minnesota

NFL Week 3 Predictions

I have been soooo busy this Fall that I haven't been able to keep this blog updated. But, I have continued to make my weekly NFL picks. I just haven't had the time to post them.

I started the 2009 NFL season with a very strong set of picks, going 13-3 in Week 1. I will admit that I got a little bit of a big head after that very impressive showing. But, Week 2 brought me crashing back down to Earth with a 7-9 record. If you're keeping track, that puts me at 20-12 after two weeks.

WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS
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Washington at Detroit: I honestly think the Lions have a chance to win this game. The Redskins offense has been less than impressive scoring only 26 points in two games. But, I truly feel the Redskins are the better team. Winner = Washington

Green Bay at St. Louis: The Rams have scored a total of 7 points in two games. Winner = Green Bay

San Francisco at Minnesota: OK, I admit. I like what Mike Singletary has accomplished so far in San Francisco. The 49ers appear to have some Mojo. But, I think the Vikings are a Super Bowl contender with Favre under center. This should be a good game. Winner = Minnesota

Atlanta at New England: Wow, this one is tough to call. The Falcons two wins this season aren't really anything to hang their hat on. The Patriots have struggled against two pretty decent football teams and should consider themselves lucky to be sitting at 1-1. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that Atlanta's pass rush will keep Tom Brady from getting comfortable in the pocket. I think if Wes Welker plays this game will be a toss up. If Welker can't go or isn't healthy enough to be productive the Falcons will win. Winner= Atlanta

Tennessee at NY Jets: Another tough one to pick. The Jets defense has looked pretty tough through two games against two strong offenses. I think Jeff Fisher will have some surprises for rookie Mark Sanchez. I honestly expect this to be a low scoring smash mouth football game. I'm taking the home team. Winner = NY Jets

Kansas City at Philadelphia: It doesn't look like Donovan is going to play. But, nobody outside of Kansas City thinks the Chiefs have any shot in this game. Winner = Philadelphia

NY Giants at Tampa Bay: The Giants are rolling, the Bucs are not. Winner = NY Giants

Cleveland at Baltimore: I feel sorry for Brady Quinn. This is going to be another tough week for him. Winner = Baltimore

Jacksonville at Houston: Colin Cowherd said it best when he said, " you don't draft as well as the Texans have and not eventually get better." These Texans are no longer a joke. Winner = Houston

New Orleans at Buffalo: I'm not on the Saints band wagon yet. They've beaten the Lions and the Eagles without McNabb. That just doesn't impress me. But, I do think the Saints offense is going to put more points on the board than the Bills offense this week. Winner = New Orleans

Chicago at Seattle: Nope, I'm not buying the Seahawks either. I think Jay Cutler is way overrated as a QB, but I also think the Seahawks just aren't very good. Winner = Chicago

Miami at San Diego: This could be interesting. I'm pretty sure the Dolphin defense will shut down the Charger's running game, especially if LT doesn't play. And, I doubt very much the Charger "D" will be able to slow down the Wildcat. But, the Chargers have Philip Rivers and I think there is a high probability that he is going to pass for a ton of yardage. Winner = San Diego

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Bengals looked pretty good against the Packers. But, the Steelers have a chip on their shoulder after last week's embarrassing loss to the Bears. This one will be physical, just the way the Steelers like it. Winner = Pittsburgh

Denver at Oakland: It is really hard to tell if Denver is any good, or just the beneficiary of a very easy early season schedule. I don't think it matters. Denver's schedule doesn't get any harder this week against Oakland. Winner = Denver

Indianapolis at Arizona: I think this one will come down to which team can get the most pressure on the opponent's quarterback. My heart tells me to go with Indy, but my gut tells me that the Cards will have a better game plan. Winner = Arizona

Carolina at Dallas: It will be an epic battle between two inconsistent quarterbacks who both seem to fall apart when times get tough. I absolutely have no idea who is going to win this one. It has the potential to be a very good game and it has the potential to set an NFL record for the most combined turnovers in a single game. I'm taking Dallas at home. Winner = Dallas

Colts Re-sign Ed Johnson

The Indianapolis Colts announced yesterday the re-signing of DT Ed Johnson.

The Colts originally signed Johnson in 2007 as an undrafted free agent out of Penn State. Johnson then earned a starting DT position when Booger McFarland went down with an injury. From there, Johnson went on to start 16 games during the 2007 season for Indy. Johnson then started the first game of the 2008 season for Indy before he was arrested for marijuana possession. The Colts then decided to waive Johnson as a result of his arrest.

In the 17 games that Johnson played for Indy he collected 73 tackles, including 10 against the Chicago Bears in the 2008 opener which turned out to be his best and last game for Indy.

For whatever reason, the Colts have apparently decided to give Johnson a second chance. I don't know if Johnson will remain on the straight and narrow this time around, but I do know that the Colts will have a better run defense with Ed on the field. I thoroughly enjoyed watching him play during his first stint, and I am hoping that he will provide the same toughness in 2009 that he exhibited in 2007.

Colts Sign Tauiliili

The Indianapolis Colts today announced they have waived LB Rufus Alexander and P Mike Dragosavich. Indianapolis also added former Boston College QB Chris Crane and former Duke LB Michael Tauiliili.

The signing of Chris Crane probably doesn't amount to much, but I think Tauiliili might have a chance of making it in the NFL.

Tauliili was a four year starter at Duke and amassed 141 tackles as a Senior. Tauiliili, a 2008 Duke captain from Houston, Texas, was a second team Walter Camp All-America selection this past season after recording 140 tackles, 13.0 tackles for loss, four interceptions, five pass breakups, five quarterback hurries, three caused fumbles and one fumble recovery. He led the ACC in tackles and ranked third nationally to garner first team All-ACC honors.

You can check out what Sports Illustrated has to say about Tauiliili by clicking here.

Keiaho Re-signs With Colts!

The Colts announced today that they have re-signed fourth year veteran LB Freddy Keiaho.

This re-signing is a load off of my mind. The Colts looked very thin at linebacker both before and after this year's draft. I kind of figured they might be looking to bring Freddy back after they passed on all the linebacker talent in the draft. But, I was more than a little worried that somebody else might sneak in and snatch him up. Freddy was the second leading tackler last year for the Colts, even though he only played in 14 games.

Welcome back, Freddy.

2009 Browns Draft Review

I think we can now officially say the Doug Heffernan (Eric Mangini) era has begun in Cleveland. Over the last few days I have read both good and bad reviews of the 2009 Cleveland Browns draft. I have scoured the internet in an effort to find out everything I can about all the players the Browns drafted and received via trade, and I can honestly say that I have come to the conclusion that Mangini and Kokinis have done a pretty decent job since taking over, and that includes the 2009 draft. Twenty-one different players are on the roster since free agency began two months ago.

On to the draft:

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(21) Alex Mack (C) CALIFORNIA
Over the last few days I have read a lot of "draft reviews" that are highly critical of the Browns' decision to take Mack with the 21st overall pick. I will admit that my initial reaction to the Browns trading down was total shock and confusion. But, after doing some research on Alex Mack I can honestly say that I think the Browns did pretty good with their first round pick. Not only did the Browns get arguably the best Center to come out of college in the last 10 years, they also managed to obtain 2 defensive starters in Abram Elam (S) and Kenyon Coleman (DE). Neither Elam or Coleman will probably ever reach All Pro status, but there is no doubt they are both upgrades for a defense that needed a serious overhaul. Mack, on the other hand, could turn out to be this year's Joe Thomas. If you don't think the Center position is important, go take a look at what the Colts offense did last year when Jeff Saturday was out with an injury.

(36) Brian Robiskie (WR) OHIO STATE
I am really excited about this pick. Robiskie wasn't the biggest or fastest Wide Receiver available in this year's draft, but he may be the most ready to play right now. And, he is a homegrown product which virtually ensures that he will be a fan favorite. The guy is an exceptional route runner and usually catches anything that is thrown anywhere close to him. Unfortunately if Derek Anderson wins the starting quarterback job again this season there may not be too many passes actually thrown anywhere close to Robiskie. The knock on Robiskie is that he doesn't like to block. But, I think that is something that can be corrected. The Browns may have drafted him a little high, but I definitely think he fills a need as a potential slot receiver. And he comes from good blood lines, which I think is very underrated.

(50) Mohamed Massaquoi (WR) GEORGIA
If the Browns were looking for a replacement for Braylon Edwards, I think they may have found him. And, I don't mean that in a good way. This really is the only pick the Browns made that left me scratching my head. Massaquoi is a big (6'2" 198 lb.) receiver that possesses great speed and quickness. He put up impressive numbers as a Senior (58 catches, 920 yards, 8 TDs), but his previous three seasons weren't that impressive. In fact, many scouts believe his numbers only increased during his Senior season because opposing defenses were doubling up on freshman phenom A.J. Green. The knocks on Massaquoi are that he drops a LOT of passes, and that he isn't a very polished route runner. It just stuns me that the Browns would draft a receiver that has issues with dropping passes after all they have been through with Braylon Edwards. That said, Massaquoi does show the potential to be a very gifted receiver in the NFL if he ever stops dropping passes.

(52) David Veikune (DL) HAWAII
I think this has the potential to be an interesting pick for the Browns. Veikune played as an undersized DL at Hawaii. At 6'3" and 250 pounds, Veikune is obviously too small to play DL in the NFL. So, the Browns are probably looking at his potential to adjust to the OLB position. The question remains as to whether Veikune is athletic enough to play OLB out in the open field. The guy has the speed and agility that would be required to make a successful switch, but we'll just have to wait and see how it all works out. I like Veikune because he is a maximum effort player. He doesn't stop motoring until the whistle blows. I look for him to be a special teams performer this year, and then possibly work his way into the LB corps for next season.

(104) Kaluka Maiava (LB) USC
I really like this pick for the Browns. Maiava only started one year at USC, but he did play at all four linebacking positions while in college and he was a special teams regular throughout his college career. He didn't garner as much attention as his linebacker teammates at USC, but Maiava always performed well in the games that really mattered. Maiava has the skills required to be an every down linebacker in the NFL. He is quick and decisive, and his pursuit angles are considered to be very good. Most of the scouts were also impressed with his ability to play in the open field both against the run and in pass coverage. The knock on Maiava is that he sometimes has difficulty disengaging from OL if they get into his body. I think this weakness should improve as he physically matures and gains some more core strength. And from the useless information file, I will also tell you that Kaluka is the nephew of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. Maybe we'll get to see the Rock at a few Browns games. It appears to me that the Browns found a guy in Maiava that will contribute immediately on special teams, and will probably work his way into the linebacking rotation before the season is over.

(177) Don Carey (CB) NORFOLK STATE
I would like to be able to tell everybody that I have seen this guy play several times, but to be honest I'm not even sure I knew Norfolk State had a football team. The general consensus on Carey seems to be that he has the skills to play in the NFL, but that he probably isn't physically ready yet. This translates into "Don Carey is going to be a project." So, don't expect to see Carey on the field in the near future. But, Carey was a four year starter in college, and apparently he turned quite a few heads during his time at the East-West Shrine game. The biggest asset that most scouts believe Cary has is "potential." The Browns need help at CB, and I think this was a decent value pick even if Carey only becomes a marginal NFL player.

(191) Coye Francies (CB) SAN JOSE STATE
Pretty much everybody seems to agree that Francies has the physical ability to be successful in the NFL. The knock on Francies is that he had some "off the field" issues at Oregon State that eventually led to him transferring to San Jose State. As a result, he only has two years of actual playing time in college. But, he performed very well in postseason all star games and zoomed up many draft boards as a result. Francies has good height at 6'1", but he is considered to be a little light at 185 pounds. Still, Francies has the reputation of being a physical player and a very good tackler. If he can add some muscle weight without losing his speed and quickness, Francies could possibly end up being the shut down corner that Coach Heffernan (Mangini) is looking for. I like this pick, but I don't think we will see Coye on the field this season.

(195) James Davis (RB) CLEMSON
This could be the steal of the draft for the Browns. Davis is a strong character guy that was considered to be a locker room leader in college. If I had to describe his running style, I would call him a poor man's version of a young Jamal Lewis. He is not fast, but he is quick to the hole and has great balance and power. He is also a very good receiver out of the backfield and was quite impressive in college at picking up the blitz when he was asked to stay in the backfield and block. He doesn't have much experience when it comes to playing in bad weather (snow), but it looks on paper like Davis might be exactly the kind of ground and pound back that is needed in the AFC North. I think this was a very high value pick for the Browns, especially if Jamal Lewis starts slowing down.

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I really like what the Browns did in the draft this year, and what they have done since Mangini/Kokinis have taken over the reigns. I know that not everybody thinks the Browns draft was very good this year, but I think they may have potentially added four opening day starters (Elam, Coleman, Mack, and Robiskie). And, I think Maiava, Veikune, Francies, Davis, and Massaquoi could possibly all see the field on special teams and in spot situations throughout the season. I don't see how anybody could call that an unsuccessful draft. If I had to give the Browns a grade, I would give them an A-. They managed to draft for several need positions, and I would have given them an A if I thought they had selected a CB that was ready to play now. But, I think they made some very nice selections considering how awful they have done in the past. I've also been very impressed with some of the free agent rookies the Browns have already invited to rookie camp this year.

I'm not saying the Browns are going to make the playoffs this year. But, I think they will definitely show improvement over last season. The biggest issue that needs to be addressed is the quarterback position. I personally think that all the Brady Quinn trade rumors this offseason were just rumors. I'm not saying that I don't think Quinn will be traded before the season starts, but I think Mangini is the kind of coach that wants to make sure who his quarterback is before he trades "the other guy." And, I'm pretty sure that Mangini is also the kind of coach that won't base any major decisions on the flip of a coin. No, he is going to give Brady Quinn a chance to prove his worth, which is something that Romeo Crennel apparently never did.

2009 Colts Draft Review

Last season the Colts finished with a record of 12-4, but another early exit from the playoffs took a little luster off the strong regular season. I am beginning to think the departure of Tony Dungy is starting to look like a good thing for 2009. I have always been a big fan of Tony Dungy the person, and a big fan of Tony Dungy the talent evaluator. But, I have never been a big fan of Tony Dungy the coach. At first, I wasn't too happy with the Colts hiring Jim Caldwell to replace Tony. But, I have to admit that I have been super happy with what I have seen from Jim Caldwell so far. This year's draft is no exception.

It looks to me like Jim Caldwell may be leaning toward changing a few of the basic philosophies that Dungy brought to Indy. And in my opinion, the things Caldwell is changing are long overdue. So, let's take a look at their draft.

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(27) Donald Brown (RB) UCONN
Brown led the nation in rushing last season as a Junior with 2083 yards. A lot of the scouts think of Brown as being a little undersized, but at 5'10" and 208 pounds he is a quick and powerful running back. He is a great route runner and an exceptional blocker. Brown also has the ability to return kicks and punts, which is something the Colts could definitely use. Most importantly to me, Brown is a strong character guy. I think this was strong pick for the Colts. I will admit that I was hoping they would draft a linebacker with their first pick, but if I was going to pick a running back, Donald Brown is the guy I would have gone after. I look for Brown to contribute immediately, although he will initially probably do most of his work on special teams. It has been a long time since the Colts had a running back with this kind of speed.

(56) Fili Moala (DT) USC
This is the first pick where I thought Jim Caldwell appeared to be taking a different route than Tony Dungy would have taken. Moala tips the scales at 305 pounds, which looks like a bit of a departure from the Tony Dungy style of defense. Moala's weight, however, is a little misleading. Most scouts agree that Moala does not play like a 300 pound DT. The strength of Moala's game is his quickness and perpetual motor. This guy does not take any play off. He is considered a bit of a project because his technique is not considered to be ready for the NFL. Moala is a slasher and a dasher and I think his selection signals that Jim Caldwell was looking for a guy who could get into the opponents backfield to make some plays. Moala should figure into the defensive line rotation this year, but I am not sure he is the run stopper that many people are probably hoping he would be. But, his size and quickness should allow him to play at either DE or DT positions. I think this was a decent value pick.

(92) Jerraud Powers (CB) AUBURN
This pick also seems to stray a little bit from the Tony Dungy defensive philosophy. Tony always seemed to like the big hard hitting CB's that could play the Cover 2 and come up and hit a running back out of the backfield. While Powers is considered to be a physical CB, he is also a bit undersized at 5'9" and 188 pounds. I'm sure Powers could excel in the Cover 2, but he made a name for himself in the SEC by covering a lot of quick receivers one on one. To me, this pick signifies that Jim Caldwell may be a little more aggressive with his defensive schemes than what Tony Dungy was. Powers looks like a guy that could lock up a wide receiver long enough for the Colts to bring a blitz, which is something that Tony Dungy and Ron Meeks didn't do as often as I would have liked. I really like the selection of Powers, but I'm not sure he is far enough along to be a contributor this season.

(127) Austin Collie (WR) BYU
This was a home run as far as I am concerned. Collie led the nation in receiving yards last year as a Junior. He is a great route runner with exceptionally soft hands. In my opinion, he could be the second coming of Brandon Stokely. He is the prototypical slot receiver and I expect him to get playing time almost immediately. He is smart enough to grasp the Colts offense and he is another strong character guy. The knock on Collie is his speed. I don't expect his speed to hurt him too much because I think most of the opposing defenses are going to have to focus on Wayne and Gonzalez. This means that Collie is probably going to be facing Safeties and Linebackers most of the time he is running routes. I like this pick and I think it was steal at 127.

(136) Terrance Taylor (DT) MICHIGAN
This may turn out to be the best pick of the draft for the Colts. At 6'0" and 320 pounds, Taylor is a massive run stopping DT. This guy had one speed in college, and that speed was full throttle. Taylor is the type of guy that will almost always demand a double team if the opponent runs the ball anywhere near him. He is quick and strong with a background in power lifting. Taylor is not known as a pass rusher, but his presence on the field will undoubtedly create situational nightmares for teams that like to double team Freeney and Mathis. I like this pick, and I fully expect to see Taylor on the field a lot this season. To me, this is the only pick the Colts made that really addresses the issues they had last season trying to stop the run.

(201) Curtis Painter (QB) PURDUE
I found this pick to probably be the most interesting the Colts made this year. If you have followed this blog in the past, you know that I am not a fan of Jim Sorgi. Jim always plays well in pre season games, and when there is nothing on the line. But, when the opponents put a little pressure on him he tends to fold like a cheap piece of copy paper. I find it very telling that Jim Caldwell, formerly the Colts quarterback coach, would spend a draft pick on another quarterback in his first draft as the Colts head coach. This pick tells me that Jim Caldwell may not be as infatuated with Jim Sorgi as Tony Dungy seemed to be. I know Curtis Painter didn't have a great Senior year at Purdue, but let's not forget that Painter comes out of the same system that produced Drew Brees and Kyle Orton. Painter has NFL caliber arm strength, decent size (6'4"), and a decent 40 time (4.87). If Painter's injured shoulder has healed sufficiently, and he turns out to be smart enough to learn the Colts complex offensive scheme, I could honestly see him eventually supplanting Jim Sorgi as the Colts official clip board holder.

(222) Pat McAfee (K) WEST VIRGINIA
A lot of people have questioned this pick because the Colts obviously already have a pretty decent kicker on the roster. But, I don't believe the Colts drafted McAfee to be a kicker. Instead, I think the Colts intend on McAfee replacing the recently departed Hunter Smith as the team's punter and occasional kick-off man. McAfee averaged 43.7 yards per punt in his college career and was one of three finalists for the Ray Guy award during his Senior season. I think this pick obviously fills a need and also provides the Colts with a back-up kicker in case Vinatieri would happen to get hurt again. To me, this is a decent value pick and I can't complain.

(236) Jaimie Thomas (OL) Maryland
I don't know a whole lot about Thomas, but Bill Polian always seems to do extremely well finding serviceable offensive lineman in the later rounds. Thomas has decent size at 6'4" and 330 pounds, but most scouting reports knock him for not being too agile in the open field. On paper he doesn't seem like a good fit for the Colts offensive line, but he has the credentials to end up being a decent stopgap in case someone were to get injured. I don't ever see Thomas becoming a regular starter for the Colts, but you never know what Howard Mudd might be able to accomplish with this kid. I would have rather seen the Colts take a linebacker with this pick.

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My Take:

The Colts draft this year is a tough one for me to rate. Overall, I am very happy with the players that Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell were able to get. But, I have the same complaint with this draft that I have every year with the Colts. To me, the most important position in a Cover 2 dominant defense is that of the linebacker. And again, the Colts seemed to have overlooked some very obvious linebacker talent in the draft. Unfortunately, it looks to me like the Colts are in worse shape at linebacker right now than any year I can remember in recent history.

According to the Colts official roster, which was updated on 4-26-09, the Colts currently have the following linebackers in fold: Rufus Alexander, Gary Brackett, TyJuan Hagler, Michael Okwo, Jordan Senn, Clint Session, Adam Seward, and Philip Wheeler. Of those players, only Brackett, Hagler, and Session have significant experience in the NFL. And, let's be honest, none of them are guys that you would want to build a Cover 2 defense around. So, unless one of the other 5 linebackers on the roster suddenly emerges as a superstar it looks to me like the Colts defense will probably remain weak up the middle for another year. In this aspect, I would have to say the Colts failed to fill a definite need in the draft.

The only logic I can see in the Colts bypassing such obvious linebacker talent in the draft is that the coaching staff may feel like beefing up the D-line will help keep the opponents O-line off of the Colts linebackers. Thus, allowing the linebackers to flow more easily to the ball. Unfortunately, I just don't feel that Hagler or Brackett really excel on their pursuit angles even when they go unblocked. So, beefing up the D-line may not have as big an effect on the Colts run defense as what many people might think. I guess time will tell.

I would rate the Colts draft this year as a B. I think they made a significant upgrade on the defensive line and I think they may have found a very nice slot receiver with Austin Collie. The selection of McAfee looks like a good one in that it gives the Colts a replacement for Hunter Smith and also gives them a back-up kicker. The selection of Donald Brown should give the Colts running game a very nice boost. But, I just couldn't give them an A because I feel their most pressing need was at linebacker and they failed to address that position (again).

Colts Look Flat Again!

Well, the favored Indianapolis Colts went in to San Diego and fell flat on their playoff face again. Tonight's loss marks the 6th time that a Tony Dungy led team has lost their first game of the playoffs. Tony has led his teams to the playoffs 11 times in his career, so that means that 55% of the time his teams have failed to advance past their first playoff game.

The guy is great at evaluating talent, and he wins a lot of games in the regular season. But, he does not excel when it comes playoff time. Tony Dungy's postseason record now stands at 9-10.

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Take a look at how some other current and former NFL coaches have done in the playoffs.

Bill Belichick's playoff record is 15-4.
Bill Cowher's playoff record is 12-9.
Mike Holmgren's playoff record is 13-11.
Bill Parcells' playoff record is 11-8.
Marv Levy's playoff record is 11-8.
Dan Reeves' playoff record is 11-9.
Bill Walsh's playoff record is 10-4.
Jimmy Johnson's playoff record is 9-4.
Mike Shanahan's playoff record is 8-5.
Tom Coughlin's playoff record is 8-6.
Andy Reid's playoff record is 8-6.
John Fox's playoff record is 5-2.
Norv Turner's playoff record is 4-2.
Jon Gruden's playoff record is 5-4.
Brian Billick's playoff record is 5-3.
Jef Fisher's playoff record is 5-5.
Lovie Smith's playoff record is 2-2.

NFL Playoff Preview

I went 11-5 on my predictions for Week 17. That puts me at 157-99 on the season. I had been missing a game in my totals for almost the whole season. I finally realized today that I was missing the Houston/Baltimore game that had been originally scheduled for Week 2 but was then rescheduled to November 9th because of Hurricane Ike.


WILD-CARD WEEKEND
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Saturday, January 3rd (4:30 PM)

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) vs Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

A strong running game and a stout defense is a must when it comes time for the playoffs. Neither the Falcons or the Cardinals have impressed me with their defenses this year, but the Falcons did suit up the number 2 ranked rushing offense in the NFL this season. Whereas, the Cardinals ranked dead last in the NFL on the ground.

Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense have put up some impressive statistics through the air, but the Cards have struggled offensively when the opposing defense has been able to pressure Warner. I think Atlanta's John Abraham (16.5 sacks) will probably be wearing Kurt Warner's uniform by halftime. This doesn't bode well for Arizona.

I look for Warner to have a couple of turnovers and for Michael Turner to have somewhere around 150 yards rushing.

My Prediction: Atlanta 24 Arizona 17
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Saturday, January 3rd (8:00 PM)

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) vs San Diego Chargers (8-8)

This game is a toss-up as far as I am concerned. Both teams have a lot of talent and speed on both sides of the ball. But, both teams have had the tendency in the past to look unprepared and totally flat when they reach the playoffs. In my opinion, this is because neither team has had a coaching staff that excelled at scouting or game planning for their opponents. Instead, both teams relied heavily on their established systems and the individual talent on their respective rosters.

The last 3 meetings between these 2 teams have been decided by a total of 9 points, and I don't think this game will be any different. I think the keys to this game will be turnovers and quarterback play. Last year, Peyton Manning had 9 interceptions in his 2 games against the Chargers (The Colts lost both games).

Offensively, the Chargers need to keep their 3rd downs manageable. The last thing Phillip Rivers wants is to have Freeney and Mathis rushing full speed on 3rd and long. I look for the Chargers to run the ball a lot on first down, throw short routes underneath Indy's zone coverage, and take some deep shots off of play action. On defense, the Chargers will probably look to throw a lot of disguised blitzes against Indy's shaky offensive line.

I look for the Colts to do what they always do. On offense, Peyton will try to read the Charger defense at the line of scrimmage and decide between pass or run. Hopefully, the Colts will realize that attempting to run the stretch play against a fast Charger defense isn't going to work. The Colts need to pound the ball between the tackles on quick hitting dive plays and avoid any delayed running plays. The Chargers are probably going to blitz a lot, so I would expect to see some man to man on Indy's wide outs. Indy should be able to take advantage of the man to man by running a lot of crossing routes underneath. On defense, the Colts will sit back in their soft zone coverages and allow the Chargers to move the ball at will up and down the field.

In the end, I'm going with the Chargers. I just think that Ron Riviera will have something special up his sleeve that will totally confuse the Indianapolis coaching staff. I think San Diego will jump out to an early lead and hang on for the victory.

My Prediction: San Diego 31 Indianapolis 21
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Sunday January 4th (1:00 PM)

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (11-5)

These two teams met in Week 7 with the Ravens winning 27-13. But, statistically the game was pretty even.

The guy to watch in this game is going to be Joe Flacco. Joe turned in a 17-23 for 232 yards with 1 touchdown and zero interceptions performance in Week 7. Can he do it again?

The other aspect of this game that interests me is the Miami offense versus the Raven defense. These two teams rank 1st (Miami) and 3rd (Baltimore) in the AFC only this season in turnover differential. Miami finished first in this category because their offense turned the ball over 13 times all season. Baltimore finished third in this category because their defense created 34 takeaways this season. Something has to give.

I expect this game to go pretty much like it did in Week 7. I think Joe Flacco will have a decent game and the Raven defense will make the Dolphin offense settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

My Prediction: Baltimore 21 Miami 9
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Sunday January 4th (4:30 PM)

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

Did you know the Philadelphia Eagles have the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL? That same defense ranks 4th against the rush and 3rd against the pass.

Did you know the Minnesota Viking defense ranks 6th in the NFL? The Viking defense ranks 1st against the rush, but only 18th against the pass. That 18th ranked pass defense is a major "uh-oh" for the Vikes.

I think the defenses on both sides are going to control their opponent's running games. Yeah, Peterson will probably be somewhere around 100 yards rushing for the game. But, I just don't think Tarvaris Jackson will play well enough at QB to put more than 14 points on the board for the Vikes.

I look for Eagles to dink and dunk the Viking defense up and down the field. Philly will run the ball just enough to keep their offense balanced, but the majority of the Eagles' yards will come through the air. There will be lots of short passes with the occasional deep ball to keep everybody honest.

Look out for the Eagles. Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have enormous chips on their shoulders right now.

My Prediction: Philadelphia 28 Minnesota 10

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I stumbled again last week with a 9-7 record. That puts me at 145-94 on the season. That's not too bad, I guess.

The picks this week are going to be a little tougher because there are quite a few teams that have no reason to play hard.

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1) St. Louis vs. Atlanta: No contest. Winner = Atlanta

2) New England vs. Buffalo: Windy!! The Pats will win this one easily. Winner = New England

3) Kansas City vs. Cincinnati: There won't be too many people watching this one. Winner = Cincinnati

4) Detroit vs. Green Bay: 0-16. Ouch!! Winner = Green Bay

5) Tennessee vs. Indianapolis: History tells us that Tony Dungy never plays his starters too long in meaningless games at the end of the season. History also tells us the Colts do not perform well in the playoffs after Coach Dungy rests his starters at the end of the regular season. History will repeat. Winner = Tennessee

6) NY Giants vs. Minnesota: The Giants are going to rest some starters today, but Tarvaris Jackson is still listed as the starter for the Vikings. Winner = NY Giants

7) Carolina vs. New Orleans: The Panthers are capable of being a dominant football team, but they just can't seem to get it all together. Winner = New Orleans

8) Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh: Seriously, what is the point of even playing this game? Winner = Pittsburgh

9) Oakland vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs should win this one. Winner = Tampa Bay

10) Chicago vs. Houston: The Bears are a decent football team, but the Texans play good football at home. Winner = Houston

11) Jacksonville vs. Baltimore: The Ravens will use this game as a momentum builder heading into the playoffs. Winner = Baltimore

12) Washington vs. San Francisco: The Redskins just aren't a very good football team right now. Winner = San Francisco

13) Miami vs. NY Jets: The Jets have lost their Mojo and Favre is playing hurt. Chad has something to prove and I think he will have a nice game. Winner = Miami

14) Dallas vs. Philadelphia: I look for the Eagles to play hard, but I just don't think they have enough to beat Dallas right now. But, the Cowboy offense is vulnerable and Jim Johnson is a defensive genius. Winner = Dallas

15) Seattle vs. Arizona: I'm not going to be surprised if the Seahawks win this one, but the Cards are the better team. Winner = Arizona

16) Denver vs. San Diego: Redemption. Winner = San Diego