The Perfect Storm

If I was a Tennessee Titan fan, I think I would be getting a little worried about the Colts coming to town on Sunday. This is starting to look like a perfect storm on the horizon.

The Colts have looked flat all season. But, Sunday night's debacle against New Orleans might have been just the adrenaline shot the boys from Indy needed. If getting thoroughly embarrassed in prime time wasn't bad enough, the ensuing feeding frenzy by the media and the bloggers (including myself) has probably stirred up the hornet's nest on 56th street. I think the wagons are being circled. I don't know why, but I have a feeling we are going to see some vicious hitting this Sunday.

And I guarantee you that Pat Angerer is going to be leading the charge. Pat has been a hitting machine all season and this week he is going to have a little extra bounce in his step. Pat's wife gave birth to "Cael Patrick Angerer" yesterday. Congratulations to Pat and his wife.

The Mr. Obvious Show

"Welcome back to the Mr. Obvious Show, I am your host, Mr. Obvious. It appears we have a new caller on the line, so let's take the call."

Mr. Obvious: "Hello, this is Mr. Obvious, welcome to the show."

Caller: "Hello, Mr. Obvious. Long time listener, first time caller."

Mr. Obvious: "Caller, what can I help you with today?"

Caller: "Well, Mr. Obvious, my name is Jim and I am the coach of a professional football team in Indianapolis, Indiana. Our team has been pretty good for a long time and now all of the sudden we can't win a game. In fact, we have lost every game we have played this season. My friend, Tony, used to coach the team and then I took over as coach in 2009. I have been doing everything just like Tony did since I took over the coaching duties, but all of the sudden things just aren't working any more."

Mr. Obvious: "I see. So, what you are saying is that the team won a lot of games with Tony as the coach, but now that you are the coach the team just isn't winning any more? And nothing else has changed except that you are now the coach?"

Caller: "Well, Mr. Obvious, one of our players did have surgery this past off season and he is out for the year. But, that is just one player."

Mr. Obvious: "OK, Caller. So the team changed coaches in 2009 and lost one player for this season and now you can't win a game. And, you are telling me that you are doing everything exactly like Tony did?"

Caller: "Yes, Mr. Obvious. Just like Tony did. I kept meticulous notes of everything Tony did and said while he was the coach. We come out every game and try to throw the ball down the field on offense to build up a big lead, just like Tony did. And then on defense we drop drop back into a soft Cover 2 zone coverage on every play and try to keep everything in front of us, just like Tony did. In the past, it always worked. We used to be able to score points by the bucket load on offense and then our defense would bend but not break. But, this year is suddenly different for some reason and I just don't know why. We are constantly going three and out on offense and our defense suddenly can't stop anybody from scoring."

Mr. Obvious: "Caller, I was wondering. Was this player you lost to surgery a good player?"

Caller: "Why yes, Mr. Obvious. It is almost like you are a psychic, or something. He is probably the greatest quarterback that has ever played professional football. Why do you ask?"

Mr. Obvious: "It was just a hunch. Let me ask you a question, Jim. Is there any chance that your backup quarterback is the 2nd greatest quarterback that has ever played professional football?"

Caller: "No, Mr. Obvious. Our backup quarterback, his name is Curtis, he is doing OK but he isn't near as good as our injured quarterback."

Mr. Obvious: "Jim, are you still trying to run the same offense with Curtis as the quarterback that you were running with the previous quarterback?"

Caller: "Pretty much. We have changed a couple of things to make it a little easier for Curtis, but you know what they say, If it ain't broke don't fix it."

Mr Obvious: "But Jim, it appears to me that it is broke. You just told me earlier that you haven't won a game all season."

Caller: "Well, that's true Mr Obvious, we haven't won a game all season. But this offense has always worked flawlessly in the past with our other quarterback, why should we change now?"

Mr. Obvious: "We'll get to that in a minute, Jim. Let's talk about this defense of yours. You said earlier that your defense drops back into a Cover 2 zone coverage on every play and tries to keep everything in front of them. Is that correct?"

Caller: "That is correct, Mr. Obvious. It has always worked in the past, but it just doesn't seem to be working this year for some reason."

Mr. Obvious: "Jim, I am going to make an assumption here, and I want you to tell me if I am correct."

Caller: "OK."

Mr. Obvious: "In the past, when this Cover 2 zone defense of yours was working so well, were you usually playing with a big lead?"

Caller: "Wow, there you go with that psychic stuff again! Yeah, we always seemed to have a big lead before."

Mr. Obvious: "That is what I thought. And now that your 'Greatest Quarterback of All Time' is hurt, you aren't jumping out to big leads any more, are you?"

Caller: "It is like you can read my mind, Mr. Obvious. No, we aren't jumping out to big leads any more. And, our soft zone defense just doesn't seem to work any more because of it."

Mr. Obvious: "But yet, you are still doing everything exactly the same way that Tony did it?"

Caller: "Why wouldn't I, Mr. Obvious? You know what they say, If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Mr. Obvious: "Umm, I'm not sure you really understand what that saying means, Jim."

Caller: "I don't understand what you saying, Mr. Obvious."

Mr. Obvious: "Of course you don't, Jim. It appears to me that there is a lot of stuff out there that you probably do not understand."

Caller: "You are probably right, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Mr. Obvious: "I think I can help you here, Jim. Before you say anything else, just hear me out. First off, it is broke. You don't need to take just my word for that, if you would bother to turn on the TV or radio I am sure you would hear that same thing from anybody with a brain in their head. You just lost the 'Greatest Quarterback of All Time' to injury for the whole season. And yet, you don't appear to be bright enough to realize that you should probably change the offense a little bit more to play to the strengths of your back up quarterback and his surrounding cast. As a result, your offense is struggling to even get first downs because Curtis just isn't as good as the 'Greatest Quarterback of All Time.' Perhaps you could try to run the ball a little more instead of passing so much. Maybe you could mix up the play calling a little more and try to run some shorter patterns when you do throw the ball. Maybe you could try to be a little less predictable in your play calling. Maybe mix in some West Coast offense that might be a little more suited to Curtis' strengths. And dammit Jim, everybody knows you can't run the Cover 2 with your defense on every single play of a football game. Especially if you are playing from behind. If you ever tried to do something that stupid against a really good offense you might get torched for 62 points in one game."

Caller: "Wow, there you go with that psychic thing again."

Mr. Obvious: "Shut up, Jim. Let me finish. The Cover 2 defense works best when you are up by several scores and you can then force your opponent into obvious passing situations that your defense can take advantage of. If you are falling behind early in a game, you are going to need to mix some things with your defense. Have you ever thought about watching films of your opponent's previous games and then looking for their tendencies, strengths and weaknesses and then designing your defensive game plans to try to take advantage?"

Caller: "We always watch the game films of our opponent's previous games just like Tony did. But, I guess I never realized we were supposed to be designing game plans based on what we were seeing. I thought Tony always watched those game films just because he was too cheap to go to Blockbuster and rent a real movie. But now it is all starting to make sense. I bet that little notebook he was always scribbling in was probably full of game plan ideas. I always thought he was just writing movie reviews for the local paper."

Mr. Obvious: "Of course you did, Jim."

Caller: "But, if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Mr. Obvious: "Jim, do you consider yourself to be an intelligent man?"

Caller: ............................

Mr. Obvious: "Jim, are you still there? Is everything OK?"

Caller: "I'm sorry Mr. Obvious. Everything is OK. I was just looking through my notes to see if I could figure out how Tony would have answered that question about whether I consider myself to be an intelligent man."

Mr. Obvious: "I think your response has pretty much answered that question, Jim."

Caller: "So, can you help me with my problem, or not. I am doing everything just exactly like Tony did and for some reason it just doesn't seem to be working for me. Do you think I should try growing a beard or something?"

Mr. Obvious: "I'm sorry, Jim. After talking with you for a few minutes and asking you a few questions I am just not sure that I can help you. But, the good news is that I think I can probably help your team and the good City of Indianapolis."

Caller: "Wow, that would be great. How are you going to do that?"

Mr. Obvious: "Well, Jim, I am going to ask you for your bosses phone number. Do you know what your bosses phone number is?"

Caller: " Of course I know what my bosses phone number is. But, I don't see how that is going to help the team."

Mr Obvious: "Let's see if I can explain this to you in a way that you might understand. First, you are going to give me your bosses phone number. Then, I am going to call your boss and give him Jeff Fisher's phone number. Do you understand now, Jim?"

Caller: "I'm sorry, Mr. Obvious. I just don't understand how giving my boss Jeff Fisher's phone number is possibly going to help my team or the City of Indianapolis."

Mr. Obvious: "Of course you don't, Jim. And that, is the problem."

Is It Still Preseason?!?

Wow, a 62-7 loss is pretty hard to swallow no matter what the circumstances.

Last night the Colts looked to be in week 1 preseason form. Stupid mistakes, blown coverages, missed blocks, and missed tackles abounded all over the field. Unfortunately, the Colts were not playing a preseason game. They were playing their seventh game of the regular season. Yes, they were facing a very good team last night. And yes, they probably would have lost the game even without their sloppy play. But, it really bothered me just how easily it appeared the Colts players accepted their fate last night.

I'm not saying the Colts quit before the game was over, but I do think some players clearly had defeat in their eyes long before the half time whistle blew. And that is something that cannot be accepted. It takes a very long time to build a winning culture and a very short time to collapse into a losing culture. The Colts appear to be on the verge of collapsing into a losing culture. The organization needs to take some drastic steps immediately to put a stop to the snowball that is rapidly gaining momentum on its downhill path.

There is an old saying in sports, "You play like you practice."

I have not seen the Colts practice, but I would have to imagine there is room for improvement in that regard. The Colts looked totally helpless and unprepared last night (again). They were soundly beaten in every aspect of the game. It looked like the Colts brought wiffle bats to a gun fight. I place this blame solely on the coaching staff. Anybody that thinks coaches don't make a difference has never played for a good coach.

Get rid of Jim Caldwell now. It is not like bringing in a new coach in the middle of the season is going to make the Colts any worse. Jim Caldwell is not Tony Dungy, and he never will be. Teams tend to be a reflection of their coaches when they take the field on game day. Jim Caldwell is a losing coach. And now, the Colts are a losing team. This is a situation that needs to be fixed now before there is a lasting change of culture and a drastic loss of fan interest.

My Take On The Colts, 2011

I basically shut down this blog down about two years ago. It wasn't that I no longer had any interest in continuing the blog, it was simply a matter of time management for me. But, with the Colts' 0-6 start this season I suddenly find myself thinking way too much about what I would do if I was Bill Polian or Jim Irsay. In fact, I have been thinking about it so much that I just couldn't stay away from this blog any longer. So, here it goes.

First off, all of you Colts fans out there need to take a deep breath. It is not the end of the world. And, stop blaming Bill Polian for the 0-6 start. Bill has done exactly what he was brought in to do. He built a team around Peyton Manning and a few other highly paid players (Wayne, Mathis, Freeney, Diem, Bethea, Clark, Saturday). Bill's hands are tied with the salary cap just like every other NFL GM out there. If you want to keep several high priced players, you suffer the consequences when it comes to the rest of your roster. I think Bill has done a remarkable job playing the hand he has been dealt, with a few exceptions which I will discuss below. I am also getting a little tired of hearing about all the failed drafts the Colts have had recently. Bill Polian's drafts have not been that bad. True, he has missed on a few high draft picks in recent years (Jerry Hughes, Donald Brown, Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh), but he has made some exceptional picks in those recent drafts as well (Pat Angerer, Kavell Connor, Anthony Castonzo, Delone Carter, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Clint Session, Antoine Bethea, Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis).

Where I believe the Colts management have made a their mistakes over the last few years is when it came to deciding which players to keep and which to let go. I don't claim to have any inside knowledge on player personalities or locker room compatibility, and I am basing my opinion totally on the talent and effort I see on the field. Obviously, a player's personality and ability to get along with his teammates has to play an important part of any personnel decisions the Colts or any other team has to make. I feel that Bill Polian has done enough over the years to earn my trust and respect when it comes to making personnel decisions. Bill knows a lot more more about salary caps and what goes on in the Colts locker room than I will ever know. But, that will not stop me from playing Monday morning GM and pointing out a few moves that I think he should not have made. Here goes.

I love Gary Brackett as a person, but I think he falls woefully short as a starting middle linebacker in the NFL. And his $4.4 million hit on the Colts 2011 salary cap seems more than a little excessive to me. I guarantee you if Gary were allowed to hit the free agent market he wouldn't get anywhere near that amount from any other team out there. Gary has put up some impressive tackling numbers over the years, but too many of his tackles have been 5 yards down field. To me, a good middle linebacker needs to make his reads quickly and attack the line of scrimmage as soon as he sees the hole develop. Gary tends to wait until he sees the running back emerge from the hole and too often ends up getting run over in the process by the running back or a blocking lineman. I used to think Gary was just playing the way the coaches wanted him to play, but I have now seen too many other Colts linebackers step into Gary's position and do a much better job attacking the play. After seeing Pat Angerer play middle linebacker this season, there is no way I would ever put Gary back into the starting lineup as the middle linebacker. If I was Bill Polian, I would have made an effort to keep Clint Session instead of Gary Brackett. But, Bill Polian has made it a point over the years to let promising young linebackers move on in free agency while he clings to the underachieving Brackett. Bill has definitely been very consistent when it comes to linebackers and I think this approach has been detrimental to the Colts defense over the years. Cato June, David Thornton, Clint Session, Marcus Washington, and Mike Peterson are the most notable linebackers that Bill Polian has let go to free agency in recent years.

I honestly haven't thought too highly of Ryan Diem since he has been in Indianapolis. I just don't see whatever it is the Colts coaching staff sees in the guy. But, the Colts have kept him year in and year out while they continue to let other lineman go (Jake Scott, Ryan Lilja, Charlie Johnson). Ryan Diem has killed many Colts drives over the years with his pathetic attempts at pass blocking and his incessant knack for penalties on important downs. If I was an opposing Defensive Coordinator I would focus my defensive attack on Ryan Diem every time I played the Colts. It seems like 75% of the pressure on Peyton Manning every season comes from the players that line up across from Diem. I have to give Jim Caldwell a little credit this season for moving Diem from right tackle to the right guard position. That is a move that should have been made years ago. Moving Diem inside greatly limits his ability to totally whiff on an outside speed rush by players like Mario Williams. I haven't seen enough of Diem at right guard yet to form an opinion as to his talent at that position, but I do think the Colts would have been wiser to have kept Jake Scott at right guard and let Ryan Diem go years ago. Jake Scott still starts for the Titans and currently hits Tennessee's salary cap for about $500,000 less than what Diem is costing the Colts. I personally would have kept Charlie Johnson instead of Ryan Diem this last off season. Charlie is now the starting left tackle for Minnesota and is currently costing the Vikings a little over $4 million less against the cap than what Diem is costing the Colts. Ryan Lilja starts for the Chiefs and currently hits Kansas City's cap for less than half of what Diem is costing the Colts. Only time will tell if Diem is worth his salary at right guard. I personally do not think he is worth it and Bill Polian would have been smarter to have kept Lilja, Scott or Johnson. I am also still upset that Bill Polian picked Jerry Hughes at #28 in the 2010 draft instead of Rodger Saffold (OT). How good would the offensive line look right now with Saffold and Castonzo as the bookends?

Anthony Gonzalez was brilliant at Ohio State. I was ecstatic when the Colts drafted the guy. I have emphatically changed my opinion on Gonzalez since he has been a Colt. His ability to drop important catches when he is wide open is only surpassed by Pierre Garcon. But, Pierre's speed and knack for making the incredible catches makes Pierre worth the occasional drops in my opinion. Gonzalez is a different story. I am tired of seeing Gonzalez run his routes two yards short of the first down marker, tired of seeing him drop the third down passes, and tired of seeing him stand on the sidelines in street clothes. In my opinion, Gonzalez is a player that must be let go after this season. The Colts are not getting enough of a return on his $1.76 million hit against the salary cap. Especially when you consider that Garcon only costs the Colts $577,000 against the cap, and Collie only costs the Colts $589,000 against the cap. Hell, Blair White only costs the Colts $405,000 against the cap and I would much rather see White on the field on third down than Anthony Gonzalez.

I am not even going to discuss the Kerry Collins signing for $4 million. I don't blame the Colts for freaking out about the prospect of Curtis Painter having to lead the team this season. But, in hindsight, it doesn't look like such an intelligent decision now. And, I know a lot of people are done with Donald Brown but the guy really doesn't cost the Colts that much against the cap ($1.1 million). I think I would strongly consider keeping Brown unless Carter continues to impress me the way he has so far. Addai is a no brainer for me. I keep Addai as long as I can. Addai may not always be the best runner, but he is fantastic as a receiver and a blocker.

No, I would not trade Mathis or Wayne. They are both at the point in their careers where the Colts simply wouldn't get enough in return for either one of them. Those guys are much too valuable on the field to even consider trading them at this point. Unless, of course, there is no chance that Peyton Manning will ever be able to play at a high level again. If Peyton is unable to fully recover from his injury, then it would make sense to start the rebuilding process now. But, I do not believe that Peyton's career is over just yet. It would not surprise me if Peyton never plays at the level again that we have been accustomed to seeing from him, but even at 90% the guy is still better than almost every other QB out there. But, what if Peyton is unable to return and is ultimately forced to retire? I hate "what ifs," but I already know what I would do if that turns out to be the case. And, it is probably not what you think.

Let's face it, if Peyton doesn't return this season there is a very good chance the Colts will be looking at one of the top three draft picks. In my opinion, they have to take Andrew Luck if he is available for them. But, if they do take Luck they are going to have to make some very difficult salary cap decisions. That would mean they may end up losing Reggie Wayne and/or Robert Mathis. And, there is no guarantee that Luck wouldn't pull some kind of John Elway move and refuse to come to Indy. Especially with the possibility of maybe starting as a rookie in someplace like Miami. But, the Colts have to try to get Luck if they can. The Colts are in uncharted territory right now with Peyton's health, and even if Peyton comes back full strength he probably only has 4 or 5 good years left. Bring Luck in and see what he can do. If he is anywhere close to being as good as everybody thinks he is going to be then the Colts could always sit him for a couple of years and then do the unthinkable by seeing what kind of interest other teams might have in trading for Peyton. Trading Manning would be extremely unpopular in Indianapolis, but ultimately the NFL is a business. And, it doesn't make a lot of business sense to sacrifice 10 years of financial success for 4 years of financial success.

If Luck is not available for the Colts in next year's draft, then I think the Colts still need to start thinking about their long term future anyway. Let's face it, if this year has proven anything it has proven the Indy model doesn't work if Peyton isn't playing. I think it is high time the Colts seriously look at scrapping the "Tampa 2" defense and start spending some more money on the defense. Finding some DB's that are capable of playing man coverage would be a good place to start. Whether that means using some high draft picks to select some DB's or trading some high draft picks to get some DB's doesn't matter to me. The Colts defense will be a hell of a lot less predictable if they can occasionally blitz with the confidence that their DB's won't get beat deep every time they play man coverage. I don't blame Larry Coyer for the weak Colts pass defense this season. I firmly believe Coyer is doing the best he can with what he has to work with. Just like any other defense out there, the Tampa 2 is only as good as the players on the field. For the record, I don't like the Tampa 2. I would much rather the Colts be playing a 3-4, but they just don't have the personnel to pull it off.

The biggest change I would make is with the head coach. I like Jim Caldwell as a person, but the guy simply doesn't impress me as a head coach. I could be totally wrong here and I am man enough to admit it. But, I just don't think Caldwell is the guy to lead the Colts into the future. I am not just now jumping on that bandwagon after the 0-6 start, either. I didn't want him to get the job in the first place. And, I haven't seen anything yet to change my mind. If I was Bill Polian I would already be weighing my options and seeing what kind of interest might be out there from other coaches. I personally would like to see the Colts bring in more of a defensive minded coach, especially if he had experience with something other than a Cover 2. The first guy I would call would be Jeff Fisher. I know Fisher's resume isn't exactly fantastic, but the guy did have some success against the Peyton Manning led Colts over the years. Fisher was a head coach for a long time with the same team, which means that he is capable of playing well with others. Even if he is often viewed as being difficult to get along with. And, I don't care about his overall head coaching record. If past coaching records were that important to the Colts they never would have hired Jim Caldwell in the first place. Caldwell's record at Wake Forest wasn't just bad, it was downright embarrassing. Caldwell's conference records for 1993 to 2000 when he was at Wake Forest were 1-7, 1-7, 0-8, 1-7, 3-5, 2-6, 3-5, 1-7. I know it is probably very difficult to be successful at Wake Forest, but Jim Grobe has done a decent job there since he replaced Jim Caldwell. Look it up for yourself if you want.

Of all the things I mentioned above, getting rid of Jim Caldwell would be my first move. But, only if there is someone better out there. Right now there is Jeff Fisher and Bill Cowher. I consider both guys to be better options than Caldwell. And, there may be an up and comer out there somewhere that hasn't been discovered yet. Who knows? But, sitting back and watching the Colts get out coached every week is starting to get old really fast. If the Colts wait until after the season is over to make a coaching move it may be too late to get the guy they really want. I think it is time to shit or get off the pot. Get the guy you want NOW before somebody else gets him. I am pretty sure the Dolphins will be looking for a new coach in the very near future. Jeff Fisher will not be unemployed for long.

After the season I would part ways with Brackett, Gonzalez, Collins, Hughes and Diem. If Carter works out as well as I think he might, I would also seriously consider letting Donald Brown go. And if I could find some man cover capable DB's I would seriously think about starting completely over with my defensive backfield. Bethea and Bullit are the only two guys that I think have proven their ability in the defensive backfield for the Colts. And, Bullit's ability to stay healthy is starting to make me nervous. It is also high time the Colts seriously consider trying to keep the good linebackers. Pat Angerer looks like a good linebacker to me. Invest some money in Angerer and keep him for awhile. Reggie Wayne may be too expensive to keep, but his numbers have dropped significantly this season without Manning and that might actually help the Colts keep Reggie in the long run. I am sure there are a lot of other teams out there right now wondering if guys like Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are really as good as Peyton Manning has made them look over the years.

I could go on forever with this topic, but I am tired of typing.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I went 7-6 last week and now stand at 73-43 on the season. That's not very good, even by my standards.

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Washington at Atlanta: The Falcons should win this one easily. Winner = Atlanta

Arizona at Chicago: These two teams confuse the hell out of me. Winner = Arizona

Baltimore at Cincinnati: This one should be interesting. Winner = Baltimore

Houston at Indianapolis: The Colts are banged up on defense. Sanders, Jackson, and Hagler are all out for the remainder of the season. If I was a betting man, I would take the Texans. But I'm not a betting man. Winner = Indianapolis

Miami at New England: Can the Patriots stop the run? Can the Dolphins defend against the pass? Winner = New England

Green Bay at Tampa Bay: The only question here is how many points can the Packers put on the board? Winner = Green Bay

Kansas City at Jacksonville: The Jags have to win this one to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Winner = Jacksonville

Carolina at New Orleans: I absolutely hate the NFC South. Every bone in my body is telling me the Saints should win this one without even breaking a sweat. Winner = Carolina

Detroit at Seattle: I don't see any way the Lions could win this game. Winner = Seattle

Tennessee at San Francisco: I think this game could go either way. I just have a gut feeling that Vince Young is going to screw this up somehow for the Titans. Winner = San Francisco

San Diego at NY Giants: I think this game could go either way. My gut tells me to take the Chargers. Winner = San Diego

Dallas at Philadelphia: This is another game that I think could go either way. I think I just like the way the Eagles have been looking a little better than I do the Cowboys. Winner = Philadelphia

Pittsburgh at Denver: I just was starting to think the Broncos were a good football team, and then they get their asses handed to them up in Baltimore last week. I think the Steelers are pretty similar to the Ravens. Winner = Pittsburgh

The Browns

They are painful to watch, aren't they?

It has gotten so bad that there was actually a Randy Lerner sighting today.

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I have to think the fact that Randy Lerner actually talked to the media today must be a signal that something is about to happen in Berea. I also don't think it is a coincidence that Mr. Lerner made his appearance at the precise moment the Browns unceremoniously entered their bye week. Historically, owners of bad teams make difficult decisions (changes) when their team has a week off.

No, I don't think the Browns are going to fire Eric Mangini (yet), but I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Brian Daboll maybe sees his play calling duties curtailed. I also wouldn't be surprised if the League's lowest rated QB suddenly finds himself spending a little more time on the bench. I'm not saying all the Browns' troubles should be blamed solely on Daboll and Anderson. But, I think we have seen enough of both of these guys this season to get a pretty good idea of what they are both capable of doing (or not doing).

Instead, I think we all need to just accept that the 2009 Cleveland Browns are a bad football team from the top on down. Everybody knew coming into this season that it was going to be rebuiding year. From now on, I think this season should be viewed as a "tryout session" for the 2010 season. Let Brady Quinn and Bret Ratliff handle the QB duties for the remainder of the year. Quinn and Ratliff may not be any better than Anderson, but I don't see how the Browns offense could get any worse than it already is. I wouldn't even be opposed to letting Joshua Cribbs take some snaps under center.

I think it is quite obvious the Browns are going to have a high draft pick next year no matter what they do for the remainder of the this season. So, they might as well find out if they need to start seriously scouting the top QB prospects in college. Unfortunately, I'm just not sure any of the top rated QB's in next year's draft are going to be any better than what the Browns already have. Bradford looks to be the most skilled in my opinion, but it would be mighty difficult to waste a high draft pick on a QB that is coming off major shoulder surgery. Tim Tebow has the kind of grit the Browns need, but he just doesn't look like he has the required skill set to be an NFL quarterback. Colt McCoy? Jimmy Clausen? Jevan Snead? Jake Locker?

If I were Mangini/Kokinis, I would get on the phone to Bill Polian (Colts) to inquire about the possibility of acquiring Curtis Painter. I know Painter hasn't done anything in the NFL yet, but the guy does come from the same college system that produced Drew Brees and Kyle Orton. And, Painter has also had the luxury of spending some quality time with Peyton Manning. Perhaps the Colts might be willing to part with Painter for a few of Cleveland's 11 picks in next year's draft. Painter may turn out to be a total bust, but I don't see how he could be any worse than the lowest rated QB in the NFL.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

There were six games last week where the winning team won by at least 28 points. I can't remember the last time that happened. And, I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen again this week. In fact, it looks like there should be some pretty competitive games this week.

I went 8-5 last week and improved to 66-37 on the season.

This week's picks:
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Houston at Buffalo: Matt Shaub and the Texans look like they are starting to find their rhythm. Winner = Houston

Cleveland at Chicago: Derek Anderson is the kind of QB that will "show up" once every five or six games. The Bears look like the kind of team that Anderson might perform well against. So, don't be surprised if the Browns pull this one out. But, I would have to be an idiot to pick the Browns the way they have been playing. Winner = Chicago

Seattle at Dallas: I really don't know what to think about either of these teams. Winner = Dallas

St. Louis at Detroit: I wouldn't watch this game if it was the only thing on TV. Winner = Detroit

Denver at Baltimore: My brain is telling me to take the Ravens at home. But, my gut is telling me the Broncos have enough weapons on offense to put some points on the board. Winner = Denver

San Francisco at Indianapolis: If the 49ers want to have any chance, they need to just give the ball to Frank Gore over and over again. But, this Indy team doesn't look like the same old Tony Dungy team. Winner = Indianapolis

Miami at NY Jets: I think this game could go either way. Winner = NY Jets

NY Giants at Philadelphia: This should be a good game even if Brian Westbrook doesn't play. Winner = NY Giants

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Titans are probably the best 0-6 team I have ever seen. I'm just not sure that Vince Young is good enough to break them out of their funk. Winner = Jacksonville

Oakland at San Diego: This is going to be another ugly week for the Raiders. Winner = San Diego

Carolina at Arizona: This isn't going to be pretty for Jake Delhomme. Winner = Arizona

Minnesota at Green Bay: This is the game of the week for obvious reasons. I just can't pick against Favre in a game of this magnitude. Winner = Minnesota

Atlanta at New Orleans: It is not easy to go into New Orleans and come out with a win. Winner = New Orleans

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Whew! I went 8-6 last week. I'm now 58-32 on the season. Not great, but not too bad.

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Green Bay at Cleveland: Derek Anderson has a QB Rating of 41.7. That is even worse than his QB Rating of 66.5 last season. Winner = Green Bay

San Diego at Kansas City: I seriously think the Chiefs have a chance of winning this one. But, I just don't think they will. Winner = San Diego

Indianapolis at St. Louis: This is the kind of game where the Colts would have struggled in the past under Dungy. Let's see if Jim Caldwell can get Indy fired up for a "gimme" game. Winner = Indianapolis

Minnesota at Pittsburgh: This should be an awesome game. I just haven't seen the consistency from the Steelers this season that I have seen in the past. Winner = Minnesota

New England at Tampa Bay: This one will be over shortly after the opening kick-off. Who am I kidding? This one is already over. Winner = New England

San Francisco at Houston: San Fran is getting better, but Houston is better now. Winner = Houston

Buffalo at Carolina: Yawn. Winner = Carolina

NY Jets at Oakland: The battle of the 34th and 35th ranked quarterbacks in the NFL! Betcha we see a couple of INT's in this one. Winner = NY Jets

Atlanta at Dallas: This one is a tough one to call. Winner = Atlanta

Chicago at Cincinnati: I may have jumped on the Bengal bandwagon a little early. This game is going to tell us a lot about both teams. Winner = Chicago

New Orleans at Miami: The Dolphins will probably be able to keep this one interesting for a while. Winner = New Orleans

Arizona at NY Giants: The Cards are coming off a big win, and the G-Men are coming off an embarrassing loss. Winner = NY Giants

Philadelphia at Washington: I'm not sure what to think about the Eagles humiliating loss to the Raiders last week. But, these are the Redskins. Winner = Philadelphia

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I went 9-5 last week, which brings my season total to 50-26.

Man, Week 6 is going to be a tough week to make picks. This week has it all. Good teams playing good teams. Bad teams playing bad teams. Questionable teams playing questionable teams. I suppose this is the week that we are going to find out which teams might just be pretenders.

On to the picks.
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Houston at Cincinnati: After last week I think I am finally going to jump on the Bengal bandwagon. I still don't think Marvin Lewis is a great coach, but he definitely has the Bengals playing well. Winner = Cincinnati

Detroit at Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers holds the ball too long and gets hit a lot. But, I still think he will have a big day against the Lions. Winner = Green Bay

Baltimore at Minnesota: This has the potential to be a great game. But, I think the Vikings have enough weapons offensively to keep the Raven defense off balance. Winner = Minnesota

NY Giants at New Orleans: This is the game of the week. I am going with my gut on this one. But, I won't be surprised if the Saints win it. Winner = NY Giants

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: I think the fact that Derek Anderson's 2 for 17 for 23 yards and an interception performance last week earned him the starting QB job says everything we need to know about Eric Mangini's Cleveland Browns. Winner = Pittsburgh

Carolina at Tampa Bay: I absolutely hate the NFC South. I can honestly say that I never have any clue which team from the NFC South is going to show up on any given Sunday. Winner = Carolina

Kansas City at Washington: Yawner of the week. I'm not sure why anyone even cares who wins this game. Winner = Washington

St. Louis at Jacksonville: The Rams have a small chance of winning this game. The Jags are starting to unravel from the inside out. But, I'm going with the favorite. Winner = Jacksonville

Arizona at Seattle: Which Seattle team is going to show up? For that matter, which Arizona team is going to show up? Winner = Seattle

Philadelphia at Oakland: This is the easiest pick of the week. Winner = Philadelphia

Tennessee at New England: I have a strong feeling that Tennessee isn't as bad as everyone seems to think they are. And, I have a strong feeling that New England isn't as good as everyone thinks they are. This game could be closer than anyone thinks. Winner = New England

Buffalo at NY Jets: I still can't believe the Bills lost to the Browns last week. I am so glad I'm not a Bills fan. Winner = NY Jets

Chicago at Atlanta: This could be a good game. I'm just not on the Bears bandwagon yet. Winner = Atlanta

Denver at San Diego: I really want to believe the Broncos are for real. Denver surprised me the last two weeks with wins over Dallas and New England. I'm just not sure if that means that Denver is good, or that Dallas and New England aren't as good as I thought. I'm not buying Denver yet, but I think they will go into San Diego and come out with a victory. Winner = Denver

NFL Week 5 Predictions

I went 10-4 last week and improved to 41-21 on the season. There are some interesting match-ups this week.

On to Week 5
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Cleveland at Buffalo: Derek Anderson is like a box of chocolates. You just never know what you are "gonna" get. The Bills come in ranked 28th in total defense, and the Browns come in ranked 32nd. This one has ugly written all over it. Winner = Buffalo

Dallas at Kansas City: I'm not sure if I overestimated Dallas last week or if I underestimated Denver last week. It doesn't make a difference in this game. Winner = Dallas

Minnesota at St. Louis: The Vikings are pretty good. The Rams are not. Winner = Minnesota

Oakland at NY Giants: Is Eli going to play? Does it really matter? Winner = NY Giants

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia: Rumor has it that McNabb is going to play this week, but he still isn't 100%. It doesn't really matter. Winner = Philadelphia

Pittsburgh at Detroit: Detroit looks better this season. But, they don't look as good as Pittsburgh. Winner = Pittsburgh

Washington at Carolina: Yawn. Neither one of these teams excites me at all. Winner = Carolina

Cincinnati at Baltimore: I just can't see the Bengals even keeping this game close. Winner = Baltimore

Atlanta at San Francisco: I find this game to be pretty interesting. I'm not on the 49er bandwagon yet, but if San Fran wins this one I will start watching them a little closer. Winner = San Francisco

Jacksonville at Seattle: This game looks too close to call. If in doubt, go with the home team. Especially if the visiting team has to travel all the way across the Country. Winner = Seattle

Houston at Arizona: This is another intriguing game for me. On paper, the Cards should win this one easily. But, if Mario Williams is healthy enough to play this week he will be all over Kurt Warner. Winner = Arizona

New England at Denver: I would like to think that Denver is a good team, but I haven't seen enough from them yet. Winner = New England

Indianapolis at Tennessee: Indy is 4-0. Tennessee is 0-4. This game looks like a mismatch, but Jeff Fisher's Titans always play Indy tough. If Tony Dungy were still the Colt's coach I would pick the Titans. But, Jim Caldwell is in charge now and I like what I am seeing so far. Winner = Indianapolis

NY Jets at Miami: I am really looking forward to watching this game. I thought Miami would be done once Pennington went down, but they looked very impressive last week. I still think the Jets may have just a little more. Winner = NY Jets

NFL Week 4 Predictions

I went 11-5 last week and improved to 31 -17 on the season. I'd be doing pretty good right now if I hadn't totally flopped on my Week 2 predictions.

On to Week 4.

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Detroit at Chicago: I'm still not on the Bears bandwagon, but there hasn't been a bandwagon in Detroit in several years. The Lions played well last week, but can they do it two weeks in a row? I don't think so. Winner = Chicago

Cincinnati at Cleveland: If you think you have two good quarterbacks on your roster, that probably means you don't have any. Winner = Cincinnati

Seattle at Indianapolis: The Colts defense is banged up, but they still have Peyton Manning. Winner = Indianapolis

NY Giants at Kansas City: This is going to be ugly if you are a Chiefs fan. Winner = NY Giants

Baltimore at New England: Its now time to find out if Baltimore is any good. Victories over Cleveland, Kansas City, and a notoriously slow starting Charger team hasn't proven anything to me yet. I'm still buying, though. Winner = Baltimore

Tampa Bay at Washington: The award for this week's ugliest game goes to................. I think I would rather watch "The View" than be forced to watch this one. Winner = Washington

Tennessee at Jacksonville: I just can't see the Titans dropping this one, even though it is at Jacksonville. One more loss this early and Tennessee is in serious trouble. Jeff Fisher will get them back on course. Winner = Tennessee

Oakland at Houston: The Texans have Matt Schaub, the Raiders have Jamarcus Russell. Nuff said. Winner = Houston

NY Jets at New Orleans: I'm pretty excited about this game. Both of these teams come in looking very impressive. To me, this game is too close to call. I'm going with the home team. Winner = New Orleans

Buffalo at Miami: I just don't think the Dolphins have much chance without Pennington. Winner = Buffalo

Saint Louis at San Francisco: Its only going to get worse for the Rams. The 49ers should make this one look easy. Winner = San Francisco

Dallas at Denver: Bronco fans can say goodbye to their undefeated record. Denver's next five opponents are Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. This will be just the start of a very long month and a half for Denver. Winner = Dallas

San Diego at Pittsburgh: The Steelers need this game a lot more than San Diego does, and it is in the Steel City. Winner = Pittsburgh

Green Bay at Minnesota: We've all been waiting on this one. The Vikes should win, unless Favre tries to do too much. I think the coaching staff will keep #4 in check and the Viking defense and running game will pull this one out. Winner = Minnesota

NFL Week 3 Predictions

I have been soooo busy this Fall that I haven't been able to keep this blog updated. But, I have continued to make my weekly NFL picks. I just haven't had the time to post them.

I started the 2009 NFL season with a very strong set of picks, going 13-3 in Week 1. I will admit that I got a little bit of a big head after that very impressive showing. But, Week 2 brought me crashing back down to Earth with a 7-9 record. If you're keeping track, that puts me at 20-12 after two weeks.

WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS
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Washington at Detroit: I honestly think the Lions have a chance to win this game. The Redskins offense has been less than impressive scoring only 26 points in two games. But, I truly feel the Redskins are the better team. Winner = Washington

Green Bay at St. Louis: The Rams have scored a total of 7 points in two games. Winner = Green Bay

San Francisco at Minnesota: OK, I admit. I like what Mike Singletary has accomplished so far in San Francisco. The 49ers appear to have some Mojo. But, I think the Vikings are a Super Bowl contender with Favre under center. This should be a good game. Winner = Minnesota

Atlanta at New England: Wow, this one is tough to call. The Falcons two wins this season aren't really anything to hang their hat on. The Patriots have struggled against two pretty decent football teams and should consider themselves lucky to be sitting at 1-1. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that Atlanta's pass rush will keep Tom Brady from getting comfortable in the pocket. I think if Wes Welker plays this game will be a toss up. If Welker can't go or isn't healthy enough to be productive the Falcons will win. Winner= Atlanta

Tennessee at NY Jets: Another tough one to pick. The Jets defense has looked pretty tough through two games against two strong offenses. I think Jeff Fisher will have some surprises for rookie Mark Sanchez. I honestly expect this to be a low scoring smash mouth football game. I'm taking the home team. Winner = NY Jets

Kansas City at Philadelphia: It doesn't look like Donovan is going to play. But, nobody outside of Kansas City thinks the Chiefs have any shot in this game. Winner = Philadelphia

NY Giants at Tampa Bay: The Giants are rolling, the Bucs are not. Winner = NY Giants

Cleveland at Baltimore: I feel sorry for Brady Quinn. This is going to be another tough week for him. Winner = Baltimore

Jacksonville at Houston: Colin Cowherd said it best when he said, " you don't draft as well as the Texans have and not eventually get better." These Texans are no longer a joke. Winner = Houston

New Orleans at Buffalo: I'm not on the Saints band wagon yet. They've beaten the Lions and the Eagles without McNabb. That just doesn't impress me. But, I do think the Saints offense is going to put more points on the board than the Bills offense this week. Winner = New Orleans

Chicago at Seattle: Nope, I'm not buying the Seahawks either. I think Jay Cutler is way overrated as a QB, but I also think the Seahawks just aren't very good. Winner = Chicago

Miami at San Diego: This could be interesting. I'm pretty sure the Dolphin defense will shut down the Charger's running game, especially if LT doesn't play. And, I doubt very much the Charger "D" will be able to slow down the Wildcat. But, the Chargers have Philip Rivers and I think there is a high probability that he is going to pass for a ton of yardage. Winner = San Diego

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Bengals looked pretty good against the Packers. But, the Steelers have a chip on their shoulder after last week's embarrassing loss to the Bears. This one will be physical, just the way the Steelers like it. Winner = Pittsburgh

Denver at Oakland: It is really hard to tell if Denver is any good, or just the beneficiary of a very easy early season schedule. I don't think it matters. Denver's schedule doesn't get any harder this week against Oakland. Winner = Denver

Indianapolis at Arizona: I think this one will come down to which team can get the most pressure on the opponent's quarterback. My heart tells me to go with Indy, but my gut tells me that the Cards will have a better game plan. Winner = Arizona

Carolina at Dallas: It will be an epic battle between two inconsistent quarterbacks who both seem to fall apart when times get tough. I absolutely have no idea who is going to win this one. It has the potential to be a very good game and it has the potential to set an NFL record for the most combined turnovers in a single game. I'm taking Dallas at home. Winner = Dallas

Colts Re-sign Ed Johnson

The Indianapolis Colts announced yesterday the re-signing of DT Ed Johnson.

The Colts originally signed Johnson in 2007 as an undrafted free agent out of Penn State. Johnson then earned a starting DT position when Booger McFarland went down with an injury. From there, Johnson went on to start 16 games during the 2007 season for Indy. Johnson then started the first game of the 2008 season for Indy before he was arrested for marijuana possession. The Colts then decided to waive Johnson as a result of his arrest.

In the 17 games that Johnson played for Indy he collected 73 tackles, including 10 against the Chicago Bears in the 2008 opener which turned out to be his best and last game for Indy.

For whatever reason, the Colts have apparently decided to give Johnson a second chance. I don't know if Johnson will remain on the straight and narrow this time around, but I do know that the Colts will have a better run defense with Ed on the field. I thoroughly enjoyed watching him play during his first stint, and I am hoping that he will provide the same toughness in 2009 that he exhibited in 2007.

Colts Sign Tauiliili

The Indianapolis Colts today announced they have waived LB Rufus Alexander and P Mike Dragosavich. Indianapolis also added former Boston College QB Chris Crane and former Duke LB Michael Tauiliili.

The signing of Chris Crane probably doesn't amount to much, but I think Tauiliili might have a chance of making it in the NFL.

Tauliili was a four year starter at Duke and amassed 141 tackles as a Senior. Tauiliili, a 2008 Duke captain from Houston, Texas, was a second team Walter Camp All-America selection this past season after recording 140 tackles, 13.0 tackles for loss, four interceptions, five pass breakups, five quarterback hurries, three caused fumbles and one fumble recovery. He led the ACC in tackles and ranked third nationally to garner first team All-ACC honors.

You can check out what Sports Illustrated has to say about Tauiliili by clicking here.

Keiaho Re-signs With Colts!

The Colts announced today that they have re-signed fourth year veteran LB Freddy Keiaho.

This re-signing is a load off of my mind. The Colts looked very thin at linebacker both before and after this year's draft. I kind of figured they might be looking to bring Freddy back after they passed on all the linebacker talent in the draft. But, I was more than a little worried that somebody else might sneak in and snatch him up. Freddy was the second leading tackler last year for the Colts, even though he only played in 14 games.

Welcome back, Freddy.

2009 Browns Draft Review

I think we can now officially say the Doug Heffernan (Eric Mangini) era has begun in Cleveland. Over the last few days I have read both good and bad reviews of the 2009 Cleveland Browns draft. I have scoured the internet in an effort to find out everything I can about all the players the Browns drafted and received via trade, and I can honestly say that I have come to the conclusion that Mangini and Kokinis have done a pretty decent job since taking over, and that includes the 2009 draft. Twenty-one different players are on the roster since free agency began two months ago.

On to the draft:

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(21) Alex Mack (C) CALIFORNIA
Over the last few days I have read a lot of "draft reviews" that are highly critical of the Browns' decision to take Mack with the 21st overall pick. I will admit that my initial reaction to the Browns trading down was total shock and confusion. But, after doing some research on Alex Mack I can honestly say that I think the Browns did pretty good with their first round pick. Not only did the Browns get arguably the best Center to come out of college in the last 10 years, they also managed to obtain 2 defensive starters in Abram Elam (S) and Kenyon Coleman (DE). Neither Elam or Coleman will probably ever reach All Pro status, but there is no doubt they are both upgrades for a defense that needed a serious overhaul. Mack, on the other hand, could turn out to be this year's Joe Thomas. If you don't think the Center position is important, go take a look at what the Colts offense did last year when Jeff Saturday was out with an injury.

(36) Brian Robiskie (WR) OHIO STATE
I am really excited about this pick. Robiskie wasn't the biggest or fastest Wide Receiver available in this year's draft, but he may be the most ready to play right now. And, he is a homegrown product which virtually ensures that he will be a fan favorite. The guy is an exceptional route runner and usually catches anything that is thrown anywhere close to him. Unfortunately if Derek Anderson wins the starting quarterback job again this season there may not be too many passes actually thrown anywhere close to Robiskie. The knock on Robiskie is that he doesn't like to block. But, I think that is something that can be corrected. The Browns may have drafted him a little high, but I definitely think he fills a need as a potential slot receiver. And he comes from good blood lines, which I think is very underrated.

(50) Mohamed Massaquoi (WR) GEORGIA
If the Browns were looking for a replacement for Braylon Edwards, I think they may have found him. And, I don't mean that in a good way. This really is the only pick the Browns made that left me scratching my head. Massaquoi is a big (6'2" 198 lb.) receiver that possesses great speed and quickness. He put up impressive numbers as a Senior (58 catches, 920 yards, 8 TDs), but his previous three seasons weren't that impressive. In fact, many scouts believe his numbers only increased during his Senior season because opposing defenses were doubling up on freshman phenom A.J. Green. The knocks on Massaquoi are that he drops a LOT of passes, and that he isn't a very polished route runner. It just stuns me that the Browns would draft a receiver that has issues with dropping passes after all they have been through with Braylon Edwards. That said, Massaquoi does show the potential to be a very gifted receiver in the NFL if he ever stops dropping passes.

(52) David Veikune (DL) HAWAII
I think this has the potential to be an interesting pick for the Browns. Veikune played as an undersized DL at Hawaii. At 6'3" and 250 pounds, Veikune is obviously too small to play DL in the NFL. So, the Browns are probably looking at his potential to adjust to the OLB position. The question remains as to whether Veikune is athletic enough to play OLB out in the open field. The guy has the speed and agility that would be required to make a successful switch, but we'll just have to wait and see how it all works out. I like Veikune because he is a maximum effort player. He doesn't stop motoring until the whistle blows. I look for him to be a special teams performer this year, and then possibly work his way into the LB corps for next season.

(104) Kaluka Maiava (LB) USC
I really like this pick for the Browns. Maiava only started one year at USC, but he did play at all four linebacking positions while in college and he was a special teams regular throughout his college career. He didn't garner as much attention as his linebacker teammates at USC, but Maiava always performed well in the games that really mattered. Maiava has the skills required to be an every down linebacker in the NFL. He is quick and decisive, and his pursuit angles are considered to be very good. Most of the scouts were also impressed with his ability to play in the open field both against the run and in pass coverage. The knock on Maiava is that he sometimes has difficulty disengaging from OL if they get into his body. I think this weakness should improve as he physically matures and gains some more core strength. And from the useless information file, I will also tell you that Kaluka is the nephew of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. Maybe we'll get to see the Rock at a few Browns games. It appears to me that the Browns found a guy in Maiava that will contribute immediately on special teams, and will probably work his way into the linebacking rotation before the season is over.

(177) Don Carey (CB) NORFOLK STATE
I would like to be able to tell everybody that I have seen this guy play several times, but to be honest I'm not even sure I knew Norfolk State had a football team. The general consensus on Carey seems to be that he has the skills to play in the NFL, but that he probably isn't physically ready yet. This translates into "Don Carey is going to be a project." So, don't expect to see Carey on the field in the near future. But, Carey was a four year starter in college, and apparently he turned quite a few heads during his time at the East-West Shrine game. The biggest asset that most scouts believe Cary has is "potential." The Browns need help at CB, and I think this was a decent value pick even if Carey only becomes a marginal NFL player.

(191) Coye Francies (CB) SAN JOSE STATE
Pretty much everybody seems to agree that Francies has the physical ability to be successful in the NFL. The knock on Francies is that he had some "off the field" issues at Oregon State that eventually led to him transferring to San Jose State. As a result, he only has two years of actual playing time in college. But, he performed very well in postseason all star games and zoomed up many draft boards as a result. Francies has good height at 6'1", but he is considered to be a little light at 185 pounds. Still, Francies has the reputation of being a physical player and a very good tackler. If he can add some muscle weight without losing his speed and quickness, Francies could possibly end up being the shut down corner that Coach Heffernan (Mangini) is looking for. I like this pick, but I don't think we will see Coye on the field this season.

(195) James Davis (RB) CLEMSON
This could be the steal of the draft for the Browns. Davis is a strong character guy that was considered to be a locker room leader in college. If I had to describe his running style, I would call him a poor man's version of a young Jamal Lewis. He is not fast, but he is quick to the hole and has great balance and power. He is also a very good receiver out of the backfield and was quite impressive in college at picking up the blitz when he was asked to stay in the backfield and block. He doesn't have much experience when it comes to playing in bad weather (snow), but it looks on paper like Davis might be exactly the kind of ground and pound back that is needed in the AFC North. I think this was a very high value pick for the Browns, especially if Jamal Lewis starts slowing down.

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I really like what the Browns did in the draft this year, and what they have done since Mangini/Kokinis have taken over the reigns. I know that not everybody thinks the Browns draft was very good this year, but I think they may have potentially added four opening day starters (Elam, Coleman, Mack, and Robiskie). And, I think Maiava, Veikune, Francies, Davis, and Massaquoi could possibly all see the field on special teams and in spot situations throughout the season. I don't see how anybody could call that an unsuccessful draft. If I had to give the Browns a grade, I would give them an A-. They managed to draft for several need positions, and I would have given them an A if I thought they had selected a CB that was ready to play now. But, I think they made some very nice selections considering how awful they have done in the past. I've also been very impressed with some of the free agent rookies the Browns have already invited to rookie camp this year.

I'm not saying the Browns are going to make the playoffs this year. But, I think they will definitely show improvement over last season. The biggest issue that needs to be addressed is the quarterback position. I personally think that all the Brady Quinn trade rumors this offseason were just rumors. I'm not saying that I don't think Quinn will be traded before the season starts, but I think Mangini is the kind of coach that wants to make sure who his quarterback is before he trades "the other guy." And, I'm pretty sure that Mangini is also the kind of coach that won't base any major decisions on the flip of a coin. No, he is going to give Brady Quinn a chance to prove his worth, which is something that Romeo Crennel apparently never did.

2009 Colts Draft Review

Last season the Colts finished with a record of 12-4, but another early exit from the playoffs took a little luster off the strong regular season. I am beginning to think the departure of Tony Dungy is starting to look like a good thing for 2009. I have always been a big fan of Tony Dungy the person, and a big fan of Tony Dungy the talent evaluator. But, I have never been a big fan of Tony Dungy the coach. At first, I wasn't too happy with the Colts hiring Jim Caldwell to replace Tony. But, I have to admit that I have been super happy with what I have seen from Jim Caldwell so far. This year's draft is no exception.

It looks to me like Jim Caldwell may be leaning toward changing a few of the basic philosophies that Dungy brought to Indy. And in my opinion, the things Caldwell is changing are long overdue. So, let's take a look at their draft.

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(27) Donald Brown (RB) UCONN
Brown led the nation in rushing last season as a Junior with 2083 yards. A lot of the scouts think of Brown as being a little undersized, but at 5'10" and 208 pounds he is a quick and powerful running back. He is a great route runner and an exceptional blocker. Brown also has the ability to return kicks and punts, which is something the Colts could definitely use. Most importantly to me, Brown is a strong character guy. I think this was strong pick for the Colts. I will admit that I was hoping they would draft a linebacker with their first pick, but if I was going to pick a running back, Donald Brown is the guy I would have gone after. I look for Brown to contribute immediately, although he will initially probably do most of his work on special teams. It has been a long time since the Colts had a running back with this kind of speed.

(56) Fili Moala (DT) USC
This is the first pick where I thought Jim Caldwell appeared to be taking a different route than Tony Dungy would have taken. Moala tips the scales at 305 pounds, which looks like a bit of a departure from the Tony Dungy style of defense. Moala's weight, however, is a little misleading. Most scouts agree that Moala does not play like a 300 pound DT. The strength of Moala's game is his quickness and perpetual motor. This guy does not take any play off. He is considered a bit of a project because his technique is not considered to be ready for the NFL. Moala is a slasher and a dasher and I think his selection signals that Jim Caldwell was looking for a guy who could get into the opponents backfield to make some plays. Moala should figure into the defensive line rotation this year, but I am not sure he is the run stopper that many people are probably hoping he would be. But, his size and quickness should allow him to play at either DE or DT positions. I think this was a decent value pick.

(92) Jerraud Powers (CB) AUBURN
This pick also seems to stray a little bit from the Tony Dungy defensive philosophy. Tony always seemed to like the big hard hitting CB's that could play the Cover 2 and come up and hit a running back out of the backfield. While Powers is considered to be a physical CB, he is also a bit undersized at 5'9" and 188 pounds. I'm sure Powers could excel in the Cover 2, but he made a name for himself in the SEC by covering a lot of quick receivers one on one. To me, this pick signifies that Jim Caldwell may be a little more aggressive with his defensive schemes than what Tony Dungy was. Powers looks like a guy that could lock up a wide receiver long enough for the Colts to bring a blitz, which is something that Tony Dungy and Ron Meeks didn't do as often as I would have liked. I really like the selection of Powers, but I'm not sure he is far enough along to be a contributor this season.

(127) Austin Collie (WR) BYU
This was a home run as far as I am concerned. Collie led the nation in receiving yards last year as a Junior. He is a great route runner with exceptionally soft hands. In my opinion, he could be the second coming of Brandon Stokely. He is the prototypical slot receiver and I expect him to get playing time almost immediately. He is smart enough to grasp the Colts offense and he is another strong character guy. The knock on Collie is his speed. I don't expect his speed to hurt him too much because I think most of the opposing defenses are going to have to focus on Wayne and Gonzalez. This means that Collie is probably going to be facing Safeties and Linebackers most of the time he is running routes. I like this pick and I think it was steal at 127.

(136) Terrance Taylor (DT) MICHIGAN
This may turn out to be the best pick of the draft for the Colts. At 6'0" and 320 pounds, Taylor is a massive run stopping DT. This guy had one speed in college, and that speed was full throttle. Taylor is the type of guy that will almost always demand a double team if the opponent runs the ball anywhere near him. He is quick and strong with a background in power lifting. Taylor is not known as a pass rusher, but his presence on the field will undoubtedly create situational nightmares for teams that like to double team Freeney and Mathis. I like this pick, and I fully expect to see Taylor on the field a lot this season. To me, this is the only pick the Colts made that really addresses the issues they had last season trying to stop the run.

(201) Curtis Painter (QB) PURDUE
I found this pick to probably be the most interesting the Colts made this year. If you have followed this blog in the past, you know that I am not a fan of Jim Sorgi. Jim always plays well in pre season games, and when there is nothing on the line. But, when the opponents put a little pressure on him he tends to fold like a cheap piece of copy paper. I find it very telling that Jim Caldwell, formerly the Colts quarterback coach, would spend a draft pick on another quarterback in his first draft as the Colts head coach. This pick tells me that Jim Caldwell may not be as infatuated with Jim Sorgi as Tony Dungy seemed to be. I know Curtis Painter didn't have a great Senior year at Purdue, but let's not forget that Painter comes out of the same system that produced Drew Brees and Kyle Orton. Painter has NFL caliber arm strength, decent size (6'4"), and a decent 40 time (4.87). If Painter's injured shoulder has healed sufficiently, and he turns out to be smart enough to learn the Colts complex offensive scheme, I could honestly see him eventually supplanting Jim Sorgi as the Colts official clip board holder.

(222) Pat McAfee (K) WEST VIRGINIA
A lot of people have questioned this pick because the Colts obviously already have a pretty decent kicker on the roster. But, I don't believe the Colts drafted McAfee to be a kicker. Instead, I think the Colts intend on McAfee replacing the recently departed Hunter Smith as the team's punter and occasional kick-off man. McAfee averaged 43.7 yards per punt in his college career and was one of three finalists for the Ray Guy award during his Senior season. I think this pick obviously fills a need and also provides the Colts with a back-up kicker in case Vinatieri would happen to get hurt again. To me, this is a decent value pick and I can't complain.

(236) Jaimie Thomas (OL) Maryland
I don't know a whole lot about Thomas, but Bill Polian always seems to do extremely well finding serviceable offensive lineman in the later rounds. Thomas has decent size at 6'4" and 330 pounds, but most scouting reports knock him for not being too agile in the open field. On paper he doesn't seem like a good fit for the Colts offensive line, but he has the credentials to end up being a decent stopgap in case someone were to get injured. I don't ever see Thomas becoming a regular starter for the Colts, but you never know what Howard Mudd might be able to accomplish with this kid. I would have rather seen the Colts take a linebacker with this pick.

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My Take:

The Colts draft this year is a tough one for me to rate. Overall, I am very happy with the players that Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell were able to get. But, I have the same complaint with this draft that I have every year with the Colts. To me, the most important position in a Cover 2 dominant defense is that of the linebacker. And again, the Colts seemed to have overlooked some very obvious linebacker talent in the draft. Unfortunately, it looks to me like the Colts are in worse shape at linebacker right now than any year I can remember in recent history.

According to the Colts official roster, which was updated on 4-26-09, the Colts currently have the following linebackers in fold: Rufus Alexander, Gary Brackett, TyJuan Hagler, Michael Okwo, Jordan Senn, Clint Session, Adam Seward, and Philip Wheeler. Of those players, only Brackett, Hagler, and Session have significant experience in the NFL. And, let's be honest, none of them are guys that you would want to build a Cover 2 defense around. So, unless one of the other 5 linebackers on the roster suddenly emerges as a superstar it looks to me like the Colts defense will probably remain weak up the middle for another year. In this aspect, I would have to say the Colts failed to fill a definite need in the draft.

The only logic I can see in the Colts bypassing such obvious linebacker talent in the draft is that the coaching staff may feel like beefing up the D-line will help keep the opponents O-line off of the Colts linebackers. Thus, allowing the linebackers to flow more easily to the ball. Unfortunately, I just don't feel that Hagler or Brackett really excel on their pursuit angles even when they go unblocked. So, beefing up the D-line may not have as big an effect on the Colts run defense as what many people might think. I guess time will tell.

I would rate the Colts draft this year as a B. I think they made a significant upgrade on the defensive line and I think they may have found a very nice slot receiver with Austin Collie. The selection of McAfee looks like a good one in that it gives the Colts a replacement for Hunter Smith and also gives them a back-up kicker. The selection of Donald Brown should give the Colts running game a very nice boost. But, I just couldn't give them an A because I feel their most pressing need was at linebacker and they failed to address that position (again).

Colts Look Flat Again!

Well, the favored Indianapolis Colts went in to San Diego and fell flat on their playoff face again. Tonight's loss marks the 6th time that a Tony Dungy led team has lost their first game of the playoffs. Tony has led his teams to the playoffs 11 times in his career, so that means that 55% of the time his teams have failed to advance past their first playoff game.

The guy is great at evaluating talent, and he wins a lot of games in the regular season. But, he does not excel when it comes playoff time. Tony Dungy's postseason record now stands at 9-10.

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Take a look at how some other current and former NFL coaches have done in the playoffs.

Bill Belichick's playoff record is 15-4.
Bill Cowher's playoff record is 12-9.
Mike Holmgren's playoff record is 13-11.
Bill Parcells' playoff record is 11-8.
Marv Levy's playoff record is 11-8.
Dan Reeves' playoff record is 11-9.
Bill Walsh's playoff record is 10-4.
Jimmy Johnson's playoff record is 9-4.
Mike Shanahan's playoff record is 8-5.
Tom Coughlin's playoff record is 8-6.
Andy Reid's playoff record is 8-6.
John Fox's playoff record is 5-2.
Norv Turner's playoff record is 4-2.
Jon Gruden's playoff record is 5-4.
Brian Billick's playoff record is 5-3.
Jef Fisher's playoff record is 5-5.
Lovie Smith's playoff record is 2-2.

NFL Playoff Preview

I went 11-5 on my predictions for Week 17. That puts me at 157-99 on the season. I had been missing a game in my totals for almost the whole season. I finally realized today that I was missing the Houston/Baltimore game that had been originally scheduled for Week 2 but was then rescheduled to November 9th because of Hurricane Ike.


WILD-CARD WEEKEND
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Saturday, January 3rd (4:30 PM)

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) vs Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

A strong running game and a stout defense is a must when it comes time for the playoffs. Neither the Falcons or the Cardinals have impressed me with their defenses this year, but the Falcons did suit up the number 2 ranked rushing offense in the NFL this season. Whereas, the Cardinals ranked dead last in the NFL on the ground.

Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense have put up some impressive statistics through the air, but the Cards have struggled offensively when the opposing defense has been able to pressure Warner. I think Atlanta's John Abraham (16.5 sacks) will probably be wearing Kurt Warner's uniform by halftime. This doesn't bode well for Arizona.

I look for Warner to have a couple of turnovers and for Michael Turner to have somewhere around 150 yards rushing.

My Prediction: Atlanta 24 Arizona 17
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Saturday, January 3rd (8:00 PM)

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) vs San Diego Chargers (8-8)

This game is a toss-up as far as I am concerned. Both teams have a lot of talent and speed on both sides of the ball. But, both teams have had the tendency in the past to look unprepared and totally flat when they reach the playoffs. In my opinion, this is because neither team has had a coaching staff that excelled at scouting or game planning for their opponents. Instead, both teams relied heavily on their established systems and the individual talent on their respective rosters.

The last 3 meetings between these 2 teams have been decided by a total of 9 points, and I don't think this game will be any different. I think the keys to this game will be turnovers and quarterback play. Last year, Peyton Manning had 9 interceptions in his 2 games against the Chargers (The Colts lost both games).

Offensively, the Chargers need to keep their 3rd downs manageable. The last thing Phillip Rivers wants is to have Freeney and Mathis rushing full speed on 3rd and long. I look for the Chargers to run the ball a lot on first down, throw short routes underneath Indy's zone coverage, and take some deep shots off of play action. On defense, the Chargers will probably look to throw a lot of disguised blitzes against Indy's shaky offensive line.

I look for the Colts to do what they always do. On offense, Peyton will try to read the Charger defense at the line of scrimmage and decide between pass or run. Hopefully, the Colts will realize that attempting to run the stretch play against a fast Charger defense isn't going to work. The Colts need to pound the ball between the tackles on quick hitting dive plays and avoid any delayed running plays. The Chargers are probably going to blitz a lot, so I would expect to see some man to man on Indy's wide outs. Indy should be able to take advantage of the man to man by running a lot of crossing routes underneath. On defense, the Colts will sit back in their soft zone coverages and allow the Chargers to move the ball at will up and down the field.

In the end, I'm going with the Chargers. I just think that Ron Riviera will have something special up his sleeve that will totally confuse the Indianapolis coaching staff. I think San Diego will jump out to an early lead and hang on for the victory.

My Prediction: San Diego 31 Indianapolis 21
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Sunday January 4th (1:00 PM)

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (11-5)

These two teams met in Week 7 with the Ravens winning 27-13. But, statistically the game was pretty even.

The guy to watch in this game is going to be Joe Flacco. Joe turned in a 17-23 for 232 yards with 1 touchdown and zero interceptions performance in Week 7. Can he do it again?

The other aspect of this game that interests me is the Miami offense versus the Raven defense. These two teams rank 1st (Miami) and 3rd (Baltimore) in the AFC only this season in turnover differential. Miami finished first in this category because their offense turned the ball over 13 times all season. Baltimore finished third in this category because their defense created 34 takeaways this season. Something has to give.

I expect this game to go pretty much like it did in Week 7. I think Joe Flacco will have a decent game and the Raven defense will make the Dolphin offense settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

My Prediction: Baltimore 21 Miami 9
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Sunday January 4th (4:30 PM)

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

Did you know the Philadelphia Eagles have the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL? That same defense ranks 4th against the rush and 3rd against the pass.

Did you know the Minnesota Viking defense ranks 6th in the NFL? The Viking defense ranks 1st against the rush, but only 18th against the pass. That 18th ranked pass defense is a major "uh-oh" for the Vikes.

I think the defenses on both sides are going to control their opponent's running games. Yeah, Peterson will probably be somewhere around 100 yards rushing for the game. But, I just don't think Tarvaris Jackson will play well enough at QB to put more than 14 points on the board for the Vikes.

I look for Eagles to dink and dunk the Viking defense up and down the field. Philly will run the ball just enough to keep their offense balanced, but the majority of the Eagles' yards will come through the air. There will be lots of short passes with the occasional deep ball to keep everybody honest.

Look out for the Eagles. Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have enormous chips on their shoulders right now.

My Prediction: Philadelphia 28 Minnesota 10

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I stumbled again last week with a 9-7 record. That puts me at 145-94 on the season. That's not too bad, I guess.

The picks this week are going to be a little tougher because there are quite a few teams that have no reason to play hard.

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1) St. Louis vs. Atlanta: No contest. Winner = Atlanta

2) New England vs. Buffalo: Windy!! The Pats will win this one easily. Winner = New England

3) Kansas City vs. Cincinnati: There won't be too many people watching this one. Winner = Cincinnati

4) Detroit vs. Green Bay: 0-16. Ouch!! Winner = Green Bay

5) Tennessee vs. Indianapolis: History tells us that Tony Dungy never plays his starters too long in meaningless games at the end of the season. History also tells us the Colts do not perform well in the playoffs after Coach Dungy rests his starters at the end of the regular season. History will repeat. Winner = Tennessee

6) NY Giants vs. Minnesota: The Giants are going to rest some starters today, but Tarvaris Jackson is still listed as the starter for the Vikings. Winner = NY Giants

7) Carolina vs. New Orleans: The Panthers are capable of being a dominant football team, but they just can't seem to get it all together. Winner = New Orleans

8) Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh: Seriously, what is the point of even playing this game? Winner = Pittsburgh

9) Oakland vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs should win this one. Winner = Tampa Bay

10) Chicago vs. Houston: The Bears are a decent football team, but the Texans play good football at home. Winner = Houston

11) Jacksonville vs. Baltimore: The Ravens will use this game as a momentum builder heading into the playoffs. Winner = Baltimore

12) Washington vs. San Francisco: The Redskins just aren't a very good football team right now. Winner = San Francisco

13) Miami vs. NY Jets: The Jets have lost their Mojo and Favre is playing hurt. Chad has something to prove and I think he will have a nice game. Winner = Miami

14) Dallas vs. Philadelphia: I look for the Eagles to play hard, but I just don't think they have enough to beat Dallas right now. But, the Cowboy offense is vulnerable and Jim Johnson is a defensive genius. Winner = Dallas

15) Seattle vs. Arizona: I'm not going to be surprised if the Seahawks win this one, but the Cards are the better team. Winner = Arizona

16) Denver vs. San Diego: Redemption. Winner = San Diego